What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : November 22, 2010

Mortgage markets worsened last week as the U.S. dollar gave up ground in currency markets, and inflation concerns mounted.

In response to the events, conforming mortgage rates in California rose for the third straight week.

Mortgage rates have now climbed by as much as half-percent since the start of the month, and Freddie Mac reports average loan fees to be higher, too.

The 7-month rally in rates may be nearing its end. The 30-year fixed rate mortgage is at a 4-month high after reaching an all-time low just 3 weeks ago.

The abrupt change in rates makes for an interesting study in expectations, and how they can influence a market.

Remember, inflation is bad for mortgage rates. Inflation devalues the dollar which, as a consequence, devalues repayments made to mortgage bond holders. As a result, when inflation is present, mortgage bonds tend to sell-off which causes mortgage rates to rise.

This is what’s been happening these past 3 weeks. However, we’re not in an inflationary environment. To the contrary:

• The Federal Reserve has said inflation is too low to be economically healthy
  
• Last week, the Cost of Living posted its lowest year-over-year gain in history
  

But mortgage rates are rising anyway. This is because global investors believe the Fed’s most recent market intervention — a $600 billion bond purchase program — will later lead to inflation. Just on the expectation, markets are behaving like inflation is already here.

This week is holiday-shortened, and rates should remain volatile. There’s a bevy of data including the Existing and New Home Sales reports, consumer confidence data, and the FOMC Minutes from the November 3 meeting.

If you haven’t locked a mortgage rate, consider locking one today. Rates have farther to climb than the fall.

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Mortgage Rates Still Rising. Is This The End Of The Refi Boom?

Rock-bottom mortgage rates may be gone for good. This week’s Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey shows in numbers what Arkansas rate shoppers have learned the hard way —

mortgage rates are spiking.

During the 7-day period ending November 18, the average 30-year, conforming fixed rate mortgage jumped to 4.39 percent, an increase of 0.22% from the week prior.

And it’s not just rates that are soaring. The average number of points charged to consumers increased to 0.9 percent last week. For most of the year, that cost had been 0.7 percent.

One “point” is equal to 1 percent of your loan size.

With the sudden rise in mortgage rates, we have to question whether the Refi Boom is ending.

Between April and early-November, conforming mortgage rates dropped more than a full percentage point and, during that time, a lot of Santa Cruz homeowners capitalized on the market. Refinance activity was strong; rates cut new lows each week.

Today, however, Wall Street sentiment is different. There’s a growing concern for the future of the U.S. dollar, and that’s making mortgage bonds less attractive to investors. As demand drops, so does the underlying bond’s price which, in turn, causes mortgage rates to rise.

Buy-sell patterns like this are common. The speed at which they’re changing is not. Mortgage lenders can barely keep up with the volatility, issuing up to 4 separate rate sheets in a day.

Therefore, if you’re shopping for mortgage rates, or wondering whether it’s finally time to join the Refi Boom, the time to lock is now. Mortgage rates should remain volatile through the New Year, at least. At what level they’ll be then, though, is anyone’s guess.

Housing Starts Data Much Better Than The Headlines Would Have You Believe

Newspaper stories can be misleading sometimes — especially with respect to real estate. We saw a terrific example of this Wednesday.

A “Housing Start” is a privately-owned home on which construction has started and, according to the Commerce Department’s October 2010 data, Housing Starts data dropped by nearly 12 percent as compared to September.

The media jumped on the story, and its negative implications for the housing market overall.

A sampling of the headlines included:

• Housing Starts Plunge: Market’s ‘Pulse is Faint’ (WSJ)
  
• Housing Starts Tumble (Reuters)
  
• Housing Starts Sink 11.7 Percent In October (NPR)
  

Although factually correct, the headlines are misleading. Yes, Housing Starts fell sharply in October, but if we strip out the volatile “5 or more units” portion of the data — a grouping that includes apartment buildings and condominiums — Housing Starts only fell 1 percent.

That’s a big difference. Especially because most new construction buyers in Santa Cruz and around the country don’t purchase entire condo buildings. They buy single-family residences.

As an illustration, 84% of October’s Housing Starts were single-family homes. The remaining starts were multi-units.

This is why the headlines don’t tell the whole story. The market that matters most to buyers — the single-family market — gets completely glossed over. The Housing Starts reading wasn’t nearly as awful as the papers would have you believe. Furthermore, it’s never mentioned that single-family Housing Permits climbed 1 percent last month, either.

According to the Census Bureau, 82% of homes start construction within 60 days of permit-issuance. Therefore, we can expect December’s starts to be higher, too.

Mortgage Rates Spike On Strong Retail Sales Data. Could 4 Percent Rates Be Done?

If consumer spending is a key to economic recovery, the nation is on its way.

Monday, the Census Bureau released national Retail Sales figures for October and, for the second straight month, the data surged past expectation. Last month’s retail figures jumped 1.2 percent — the largest monthly jump since March — as total sales receipts climbed to a 2-year high.

Consumer confidence is rising, too. Though still below the long-term trend, confidence in the future up-ticked in October.

The current confidence reading is now double the low-point from February 2009.

It’s no surprise that both Retail Sales and Consumer Confidence are higher. They correlate in a common-sense-type manner. When consumers are more confident in the economy, they’re more likely to spend their money. This, in turn, leads to more purchases and rising retail receipts.

Unfortunately, for home buyers and rate shoppers in Scotts Valley , it also leads to rising mortgage rates.

Because consumer spending accounts for two-thirds of the economy, spending growth leads to economic growth. But it’s been a lack of growth that’s kept mortgage rates this low.

When the growth starts, the low rates end. It’s why mortgage rates have added as much as 1/2 percent over the past 10 days. Consider the recent “good news”:

• Retail Sales made a 2-year high in October
  
• Existing and New Home Sales showed big improvement in September
  
• Jobs growth returned in October
  

The days of 4 percent, 30-year fixed rate mortgages may be nearing its end. If you’re still floating a mortgage rate or thinking of buying or refinancing, consider the impact of rising rates on your budget.

The time to act may be sooner than you had planned.

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : November 15, 2010

In a holiday-shortened trading week, mortgage markets tanked last week, casting doubt on whether the bond market’s 7-month bull run will continue. Fears of inflation caused conforming mortgage rates to rise in Arkansas.

Last week marked the first sizable mortgage rate increase over the course of 7 days since April.

The biggest reason why rates rose last week was because of concerns that the Federal Reserve’s latest round of stimulus will devalue the U.S. dollar.

The Fed pledged an additional $600 billion to the bond markets two weeks ago and, to meet this obligation, the group will have to, quite literally, print new money.

It’s Supply and Demand. With more dollars in circulation, every existing dollar is worth less.

It’s also inflationary.

As the Fed’s pledge ties back to mortgage rates, remember that mortgage bondholders are paid in U.S. dollars. So, if those dollars are expected to be worth less in the future, we would expect mortgage bond demand to fall. And that’s exactly what happened last week — investors rarely clamor for assets whose value drops over time.

The falling demand dropped down prices, and pushed up yields. Mortgage rates spiked.

This week, the trend could continue. There’s a lot of inflation-signaling data on tap:

• Monday : Retail Sales
  
• Tuesday : Producer Price Index; Consumer Confidence; Housing Market Index
  
• Wednesday : Consumer Price Index; Housing Starts
  
• Thursday : Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims
  

Analysts are calling for lukewarm data this week; none of the releases is expected to show strong growth. If the analysts are wrong, look for rates to rise again.

Momentum is moving away from rate shoppers. If you’ve yet to lock in a rate, consider doing it now.

Fed Survey : Mortgage Guidelines Tighten Further, Freeze Out Would-Be Refinancers

It’s getting tougher to get approved for a mortgage. Still.

In its quarterly survey of senior loan officers around the country, the Federal Reserve asked whether “prime” residential mortgage guidelines” have tightened in the prior 3 months.

A “prime” borrower typically carries a well-documented credit history with high credit scores, has a low debt-to-income ratio, and uses a traditional fixed-rate or adjustable-rate mortgage.

For the period July-September 2010, 52 of 54 responding loan officers admitted to tightening their prime guidelines, or leaving them “basically unchanged”.

Just 4% of banks loosened their lending standards.

If you’ve applied for a home loan lately — for either purchase or refinance — you’ve likely experienced the effects of the last 4 years. Because of delinquencies and defaults, today’s mortgage underwriters are forced to scrutinize income, assets and credit scores, among other facets of an home loan application.

Mortgage applicants in Scotts Valley have higher hurdles to clear:

• Minimum credit scores are higher versus last year
  
• Downpayment/equity requirements are larger versus last year
  
• Debt-to-Income ratios must be lower versus last year
  

In other words, although mortgage rates are the lowest they’ve been in history, qualification standards are not. Minimum eligibility requirements are tougher, and appear to be toughening still.

If you’re among the many people wondering if now is the right time to join the Refinance Boom, or to buy a home, consider that, while mortgage rates may fall further, eligibility standards may not.

Low mortgage rates don’t matter if you can’t qualify for them.

Pending Home Sales Slip In September, Suggesting A Buyer’s Market Until January

After 3 straight months of improvement, the Pending Home Sales Index slid lower in September. As compared to August, September’s reading fell 2 percent.

A “pending home sale” is a home under contract to sell, but not yet closed. The data is drawn from a combination of local real estate associations and national brokers, and represents 20 percent of all purchase transactions in a given month.

Because of the large sample set, and because 80 percent of homes under contract close within 60 days, the Pending Home Sales Index is a terrific future indicator for the housing market.

A high correlation exists between the Pending Home Sales Index and the NAR’s monthly Existing Home Sales report issued two months hence.

Expect home sales to idle into the New Year, therefore.

For home buyers in Santa Cruz, this is good news. Over the last two months, housing markets have overwhelmingly favored home sellers.

Consider than, since June, the volume of both new home sales and existing home sales has increased, causing the available home inventory to fall by months. Meanwhile, helped by low interest rates, demand from buyers has remained relatively stable.

As with everything in economics, falling supply with constant demand leads to higher prices.

Therefore, the Pending Home Sales Index’s fading September figures suggest a more balanced supply-and-demand curve in the months ahead, a move that should suppress rising home prices and shift negotiation leverage back to the buy-side.

So long as mortgage rates remain rock bottom, the autumn season is looking like a terrific time to buy.

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : November 8, 2010

Mortgage markets took a roller coaster ride last week, powered by the dual-force of the Federal Open Market Committee, and the government’s monthly Non-Farm Payrolls report.

As standalone events, both releases would have ranked among the top market movers of the year anyway, but throw in the rest of the week’s data –including the release of key inflation figures and the midterm elections — and it’s no wonder the bond markets were so bumpy.

Huge gains and losses characterized day-to-day trading last week.

Overall, however, conforming mortgage rates in Arkansas improved; fixed-rate mortgage rates fell slightly less than adjustable-rate ones.

Recapping last week’s economic news:

• Core PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, posted a lower-than-expected 1.2% annual growth.
  
• The Federal Reserve announced a $600 billion package to support the economy; more than most estimates.
  
• According to the government, 151,000 new jobs were created last month. Economists expected 61,000.
  

Additionally, the Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing Index showed strong sector growth.

With each new surprise, Wall Street’s expectations adjusted for the future and, therefore, mortgage rates changed.

This week, the direction that rates take is anyone’s guess. First, there’s no substantive economic data due for release and, second, markets are closed Thursday for Veteran’s Day. The absence of data coupled with lower volume expected overall may mean that market momentum rules the week.

In other words, if mortgage markets open the week better, they may close the week better, too.

Conversely, if rates start rising, they could rise by a lot.

If you’re still floating a mortgage rate or have yet to us about a potential refinance, there’s no better time than the present. Mortgage rates are on a 6-month rally and most eligible homeowners stand to save a lot of money.

Make that call this week — just in case market momentum carries mortgage rates higher.

A Simple Explanation Of The Federal Reserve Statement (November 3, 2010 Edition)

Yesterday, the Federal Open Market Committee voted 9-to-1 to leave the Fed Funds Rate unchanged within in its target range of 0.000-0.250 percent.

In its press release, the FOMC noted that, since September’s meeting, the pace of economic and job growth “continues to be slow”. Housing starts are “depressed”, income growth is “modest” and commercial real estate investment is “weak”.

With respect to its prior economic stimuli, the Fed deemed the recovery “disappointingly slow”, while, at the same time, noting that growth will come.

The Fed also noted that inflation is running lower that what’s optimal, hinting at the potential for deflation.

Lastly, the Fed re-acknowledged its plan to hold the Fed Funds Rate near zero percent “for an extended period”, and also announced a new, $600 billion support package for the bond market.

In most instances, a move like this would drive mortgage rates lower, but the Fed’s stimulus had been widely telegraphed, and $600 billion isn’t too far from the initial package estimates.

Mortgage market reaction is positive this morning. Mortgage rates in Santa Cruz are improving, but look for continued volatility in rates.

The FOMC’s next scheduled meeting is December 14, 2010. It’s the last scheduled meeting of the year.

Better Credit Scores Get Better Mortgage Rates

This week marks the start of the Refi Boom’s 7th month; rates have been falling since early-April 2010. Whether you’re looking to refinance or buy a home, however, know that not everyone will qualify for today’s low rates.

Mortgage approvals are primarily based on good income, good equity and strong credit, and, without all three, the best rates of the day remain out of reach. Now, you can’t always ask for a raise and equity is a function of the housing market, but you can do something about your credit score.

In this 4-minute segment from NBC’s The Today Show, you learn some credit basics to help propel your score higher:

• There’s no “quick fix” for credit. Time + Good Credit Behavior = Better FICOs.
  
• Pay every bill when it comes due. Even one late payment can damage your score.
  
• Don’t close old credit cards
  

Also among the segment’s advice is to stop worrying about whether rates have bottomed.

Refinance today if it makes financial sense. Then, if, by chance, rates fall in the future, just refinance again.

We have a simple spreadsheet to show you if it makes financial sense to refinance. Give us a call and we will run it for you. Don't wait! Rates will not be at this level forever.

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : November 1, 2010

Mortgage markets remained highly volatile for the second straight week last week. Yet, over the course of 5 days, mortgage bonds ended the week relatively unchanged.

Conforming rates in California worsened last Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday — rising as much as 3/8 percent as compared to the week prior — before settling lower through Thursday and Friday.

On the week overall, 30-year fixed rates worsened, 15-year fixed held steady, and 5-year ARMs improved.

And despite all the data released last week, it wasn’t the fundamentals that were causing rates to move. Instead, Wall Street was firmly focused on the Federal Reserve’s scheduled 2-day meeting this week; preoccupied with the likelihood of new Fed stimulus program.

The Fed’s meeting adjourns Wednesday and the group is widely expected to announce a new round of bond market support at that time. Uncertainty over how big that package will be, however, is what’s causing rates to jump.

Market estimates range from $250 billion to over $1 trillion and when Wall Street expectations shifts toward the lower end of that range, mortgage rates have been rising. When expectations shifts toward the upper range, mortgage rates have been falling.

This is why it’s all eyes on the Fed this week. Once the Fed adjourns, there’s no more “expectation” — there’s only Fed commitment.

Other than the Federal Reserve’s get-together, there isn’t much new data due for release. The week’s calendar looks like this:

• Monday : Personal Income and Spending reports
  
• Wednesday : FOMC adjourns from its 2-day meeting
  
• Thursday : Initial and continuing jobless claim data
  
• Friday : Pending Home Sales, Jobs Report, Unemployment Rate
  

It’s unlikely that data will swing mortgage rates until after the Fed’s Wednesday adjournment, but, once that happens, expect bond market attention to shift to the October jobs report set for 8:30 AM ET release Friday morning. If jobs data is strong, mortgage rates should rise.

All things considered, it’s dangerous to float a mortgage rate this week. If you’re not already locked, talk to us prior to Wednesday afternoon.