The Supply Of New Homes For Sale Just Dropped Off A Cliff

The supply of newly-built homes for sales plummeted in April, a positive indicator for the housing market as we head into the summer months.

It's no wonder that homebuilders are breaking new ground at the fastest clip in 2 years.

At the current sales pace, the nation's complete supply of new homes would be sold in just 5 month's time. That's more than double the pace of a year ago.

Also, as more good news, in terms of total housing units, the government reports that New Home Sales topped one half-million homes sold for the first time since May 2008.

It's a similar spike as within the Existing Home Sales data released earlier this week.

But before we declare the housing market "repaired in full", we have to consider a few of the reasons why home sales are charting so strongly.

The first reason is the federal homebuyer tax credit's April 30 expiration. In order to claim up to $8,000 in tax credits, home buyers must have been in mutual contract for a property before May 1. There is no doubt this contributed to a run-up in sales, especially among first-time home buyers.

The second reason is that mortgage rates have remained exceptionally low, defying expert predictions. Low rates don't sell homes, but they do make monthly payments easier to manage for households torn between renting or buying.

And, lastly, March and April's new home sales may have been buoyed by aggressive discounting on behalf of homebuilders. As compared to February 2010, April's average new home sale price was lower by 13 percent. That's a sharp drop in a short period of time.

For now, though, homes are selling, supplies are dropping, and buyer interest is high. It's no wonder builder confidence is soaring.

Home Price Index Rises 0.3% in March 2010

Home values rose in March, according to the Federal Home Finance Agency's most recent Home Price Index. Values were reported higher by 0.3 percent, on average, from February.

We use the phrase "on average" because the Home Price Index is broad-reaching, national housing statistic. It ignores the dynamics of neighborhood real estate markets as well as citywide markets , too.

Instead, the Home Price Index focuses on state and regional statistics.

For example, in March 2010 as compared to February:

• Values in the East South Central region rose 2.5%
  
  
• Values in the Mountain states rose 1.1%
  
  
• Values in the Middle Atlantic states fell 1.0%
  

Of course, none of this data is especially helpful for today's home buyers and sellers.

Real estate is a local phenomenon that can't be summarized by state or region. What matters most to buyers and sellers is the economics of a neighborhood and that level of granularity can't be served up by a national housing report like the Home Price Index.

The Home Price Index data is additionally unhelpful to buyers and sellers in that it reports on a 2-month delay.

In other words, Home Price Index is not even a fair reflection of today's market -- it highlights the real estate market as it existed 60 days ago.

So why is the Home Price Index even published? Because government, business and banks rely on the reports. As a national indicator, the Home Price Index helps governments make policy, businesses make decisions, and banks make guidelines. This, in turn, trickles down to Main Street where it impacts every one of us -- and eventually influences real estate.

Since peaking in April 2007, the Home Price Index is off 13.44 percent.

Home Supplies Tick Higher, Creating An Opening For Today's Home Buyers

Sales of existing homes rose in April, buoyed by an expiring home buyer tax credit and exceptionally low mortgage rates.

As compared to March, April's Existing Home Sales rose by 410,000 units nationwide -- the second straight month of large gains. An "existing home" is a home resold by a prior owner (i.e. not new construction).

It's a solid report for housing overall, with rising sales suggesting that the real estate market's recovery is ongoing. However, the data presented a mixed message.

According to the National Association of Realtors®, although the number of homes sold ticked higher in April, so did the supply of existing homes for sale, too.

Sellers are now listing homes faster than buyers can buy them.

After adding another 0.3 months of supply in April, resale home supply is nearly two full months larger than at November 2009's low-point. This put downward pressure on home prices.

Furthermore, because 49% of April's buyers were first-time buyers and the tax credit has since ended, we can expect that sellers will continue to outweigh buyers in the months ahead.

It presents an interesting opportunity for June's home buyers. Mortgage rates are still at their lowest levels of the year -- despite expert predictions to the contrary -- and homes remain affordable. Plus, in a lot of markets, home values have started to creep higher.

There's good values and good rates but neither should last long. For the next few weeks, real estate may be in its 2010 sweet spot.

If you were thinking of moving in September of this year or later, consider moving up your timeframe.

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : May 24, 2010

Another week, same old story.

Mortgage markets improved again last week on worsening news out of Greece and the Eurozone. Then, as contagion mentality set in, U.S. mortgage bonds gained and mortgage rates fell.

It's the 4th straight week in which conforming mortgage rates improved and, against the expectations of experts everywhere, it's now late-May and mortgage rates are as low as they've been all year.

If you're a homeowner and haven't looked at refinancing lately, it may be a good time to call your loan officer to hear your options. Especially because low rates can't last forever.

The European market concerns are likely overblown and the U.S. economy continues to expand at a measured pace.

This week, housing and inflation data takes center stage.

• Monday : Existing Home Sales data
  
  
• Tuesday : Case-Shiller Index; Home Price Index
  
  
• Wednesday : New Home Sales data
  
  
• Thursday : GDP
  
  
• Friday : Personal Consumption Expenditures
  

Each of these data points has the power to move mortgage rates -- especially because trading volume is expected to thin as the 3-day weekend nears. As volume drops on Wall Street, it will be harder to match buyers and sellers and, as a result, mortgage pricing will get (more) erratic.

Rates should be most stable at the start of the week. It may be the best time to lock a rate.

The Fed's April Minutes Push Mortgage Rates Even Lower

After starting the day in the red, mortgage rates rebounded Wednesday afternoon after the Federal Reserve released its April 27-28, 2010 meeting minutes.

It's good news for home buyers and would-be refinancers.

Mortgage rates continue to troll along multi-year lows.

"Fed Minutes" are lengthy, detailed recaps of Federal Open Market Committee meetings, not unlike the minutes you'd see after a corporate conference, or condo association gathering. The Federal Reserve publishes Fed Minutes 3 weeks after each respective FOMC get-together.

The Fed meets 8 times annually.

Because of the minutes' content and density, it's of tremendous value to Wall Street and investors. Fed Minutes provide a glimpse into the conversations and debates that shape the country's monetary policy.

The broad scope of the published meeting minutes are in sharp contrast to the more well-known, post-meeting press release which reads more like a policy summary.

And the extra words matter.

Here's some of what the Fed discussed last month:

• On Greece : A crisis in Greece could slow U.S. domestic growth
  
  
• On housing : Despite government support, growth appears to have stalled
  
  
• On its mortgage buyback program : There's little reason to sell mortgage bonds right now
  

When the markets saw the Fed Minutes, what had been a down day for bond markets turned positive. The less-than-sunny outlook for the near-term U.S. economy sparked bond sales, pushing prices higher.

Mortgage rates move opposite mortgage bond prices.

Wall Street is always in search of clues from inside the Fed about what's next for the economy and post-FOMC minutes usually give good fodder. April's meeting was no different.

For now, mortgage rates remain near all-time lows but once the Eurozone issues are settled, rates are likely to rise. If you haven't locked a mortgage rate, your window may be closing. Once the economy is turning around for certain, mortgage bonds will be among the first of the casualties.

Housing Starts Rise In April, Exerting Downward Pressure On Home Prices

Single-family Housing Starts rose by 55,000 last month, suggesting ample housing stock from which can choose this summer.

The report is a slightly larger read than what economists had expected.

Furthermore, for the first time since June 2009, Housing Starts appears to have broken away from its half-million unit plateau. 593,000 new homes were started in April.

Ordinarily, both Wall Street and Main Street would celebrate a strong housing sector report like this, but the Department of Commerce's press release also held two cautionary notes.

The first point of caution is a mathematical one. Although single-family starts increased by 10.2 percent, the survey had a Margin of Error of 10.7 percent. This means that Housing Starts may have fallen by 0.5 percent and the report is statistically worthless.

The second point of caution is tied to Building Permits, a complementary data point in the same Department of Commerce report. In April, Building Permits fell by almost 11 percent with a tiny Margin of Error of less than 2%. This tells us that builders are pulling back -- a sign of low housing market confidence

According to the Census Bureau, 82% of homes start construction within 60 days of permit-issuance. Housing Starts, therefore, should ease though June and July.

Home prices are based on housing's supply and demand. For the next few months, supply should elevate, helping prices remain suppressed, after which, supply should dwindle.

The best time to buy a home, therefore, may be now. As the summer months come to close, we may find that buyers vastly outweigh sellers.

The Right Way To Take A Cash Gift For Downpayment

As lenders tighten mortgage guidelines for home buyers, minimum downpayment requirements are increasing. Several years ago, you could finance a home with nothing down. Today, most conventional mortgages require at least 10 percent.

Anecdotally, guideline changes have led to an increase in the number of home buyers accepting cash gifts from family.

Gifts are allowed in most cases but the problem is, if you don't accept the gift in a "lender-friendly" way, the mortgage underwriter could reject it, and negate it.

You can't just deposit a cash gift into your bank account. You have to follow a series of steps and keep records.

1. Provide an acceptable gift letter signed by all parties
   
   
2. Provide documentation of the gifter's withdrawal of funds via teller receipts
   
   
3. Provide documentation of the giftee's deposit of funds via teller receipts
   

Lenders require these 3 steps for two basic reasons. First, they want to make sure that the cash gift is "clean" (i.e. not laundered). Second, they want to make sure the gift is really a gift and not a loan-in-disguise.

It's why lenders typically require that the loan application be accompanied by a signed, dated letter.

For example:

I am the [relationship to recipient] of [name of recipient] and this letter serves as evidence that I am gifting [name of recipient] [amount of gift] to be used for the purchase of the home at [complete address of property].

This is a gift -- not a loan -- and there is no expectation of repayment.

Signed, [Signature of gifter]

As an additional step, home buyers receiving cash gifts should make sure that gifted funds are not commingled at the time of deposit. If the cash gift is for $10,000, therefore, the bank's deposit slip should indicate that a $10,000 deposit was made -- nothing more, nothing less. Don't add a random $100 deposit to the transaction, in other words. The $100 deposit should be a separate transaction.

It's also worth noting that gifting funds between family members can create both legal and tax liabilities. If you're unsure about how donating or receiving a gift may impact you, call or email us directly.

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : May 17, 2010

Mortgage markets improved last week -- but barely -- as ongoing doubt surrounding the health of Greece and the Euro pushed additional investors into safe assets, including mortgage bonds.

Mortgage rates were wildly volatile between Monday and Friday before closing the week slightly better than their best levels of the year.

It's the 3rd straight week in which mortgage rates improved but that doesn't necessarily mean the trend for lower rates will continue. The last two times mortgage rates teased these levels, they immediately spiked higher.

It happened once in February 2010, and again, 4 weeks later in March.

This week, the same could happen. After a week-and-a-half without much data of consequence, the newswires will be on overtime.

The first release to watch is Monday's National Association of Home Builder's Housing Market Index. It's not a "mainstream" release, per se, but the index gives some insight into how homebuilders are feeling about the economy and homebuilders are on the frontlines of the housing market. The stronger the report, the worse it should be for mortgage rates going forward.

The same goes for Tuesday's Housing Starts and Building Permits numbers.

Also on Tuesday, the government releases the Producer Price Index. The Producer Price Index is like a "cost of living" report for U.S. businesses -- it measures the change in operating cost from mont-to-month and from year-to-year.

PPI is viewed as a precursor to inflation and inflation is bad for mortgage rates. Therefore, if the Producer Price Index reads higher-than-expected, mortgage rates will rise. If PPI is in-line, rates should hold steady.

Then, on Wednesday, the Consumer Price Index is released. Again, if costs are rising, mortgage rates will likely follow.

The week closes with the release of the Federal Reserve's minutes from its last meeting in April and the jobs figures. All in all, a busy week of data and mortgage rates could change by a lot.

If you're still shopping for the market bottom, luck's been on your side but there's a point when it's best to just lock in. This week may be that point.

Talk to us about today's market and make yourself a game plan for locking a rate. Rates have never stayed this low, for this long, and this week doesn't figure to be much different.

Your Mortgage Approval Isn't Final Until It's Funded

A mortgage approval is never final until it's funded.

A host of things can "go wrong" while your home loan is underway. Some are in your control, many more are not. And just being aware of some potential pitfalls could help save your loan down the road, and your peace of mind today.

MSN Money ran a summary piece on the topic titled "10 Things That Can Kill A Home Loan".

It's an excellent article because, unlike most "get approved" articles that advise against things like buying a car before closing, or opening a bunch of new credit cards, the MSN Money piece addresses more uncommon factors that can lead to a similar loan turndown.

For example, a home may be unfundable if it's unsuitable for human habitation -- a condition you may not discover until after a thorough home inspection's been made. Broken windows, lack of plumbing, and/or major foundation damage are all deal-breakers with a lender.

Either fix the home prior to closing, or don't close at all.

Homes in "declining markets" have danger spots, too. Especially for conforming mortgage applicants with less than 20% equity.

Because of how private mortgage insurers operate, some homes carry tougher, ZIP code-based PMI eligibility requirements. As a mortgage applicant, it's important to understand this because you may be PMI-eligible in one neighborhood, but not in another.

There's others ways in which a mortgage approval can go bad, too:

• You're self-employed and your income was lower last year versus the year prior
  
  
• Your tax return shows large amounts of unreimbursed employee expenses
  
  
• You failed to return required paperwork to the lender within a reasonable time frame
  

Mortgage approvals are delicate and, despite an improving economy, lenders still operate with caution. Talk with your real estate agent and your loan officer and put together a game plan.

The best way to beat the mortgage system is to know the rules before you start to play.

Foreclosure Activity Slows For The First Time In Several Years

The national foreclosure rate is finally falling.

According to foreclosure-tracking firm RealtyTrac.com, the number of foreclosure notices dropped 2 percent between April 2009 and April 2010.

2 percent may not seem like much, but it's the first time in the history of the RealtyTrac report that the annual foreclosure rate has dropped.

To be sure, foreclosure rates remain elevated -- more than 300,000 were reported last month, but default notices appear to be approaching a plateau.

The RealtyTrac report shows some other interesting statistics, too:

• 6 states accounted for more than half of April's bank repossessions nationwide
  
  
• For the 40th month in a row, Nevada topped the nation's foreclosure rate
  
  
• Foreclosure rates dropped in both California and Arizona, 2 foreclosure hot-spots through 2009
  

The good news for housing doesn't stop there. 9 of the top 10 leading metropolitan areas for foreclosure-related activity showed a drop in annual activity. Only Reno, Nevada showed an increase.

Buying distressed homes is big business, according to the National Association of Realtors®, accounting for 35 percent of all home resales with a typical discount ranging near 15 percent on value.

But with the discount comes some caution. You need to know how buying a foreclosed can be different from buying a non-foreclosed home.

For example, distressed properties are often sold as-is and may have defects that render them "un-lendable". Secondly, "quick closings" aren't usually possible with bank-owned homes -- you're often at the bank's schedule and mercy.

And, lastly, not all foreclosed homes are searchable online. You'll usually find more stock if you work with a real estate agent versus searching online.

The RealtyTrac foreclosure report is thorough and can help you gauge what's happening on a state-by-state level, and in the nation's largest metropolitan areas. Once you've done your research, talk to your real estate agent about what to do next.

There's still good deals in the foreclosure market — you just have to know where to find them.

Shopping For Mortgage Rates Is Part Research Skills, Part Luck

Shopping multiple lenders for a "good mortgage rate" can sometimes save you 1/8 percent on your rate and/or a few hundred dollars in fees. However, when it comes to getting the best mortgage rate, you're going to more than good research skills.

You're going to need some luck.

Mortgage rates are unpredictable, ever-changing, and rarely change as expected.

For example, when the Federal Reserve left the mortgage market March 31, 2010, analysts said that mortgage rates would rise by a half-percent or more. It was practically stated as fact on TV. When April 1 came around, though, rates didn't rise.

Instead, a volcano erupted and mortgage rates dropped on safe haven buying.

Then, a week later, as the volcano ash cleared, mortgage rates were supposed to resume their rise. Only they didn't. Instead, a debt crisis emerged in the Eurozone and mortgage rates dropped.

Since March 31, conforming mortgage rates are lower by roughly 0.125 percent, according to Freddie Mac's weekly mortgage rate survey. At today's rates, the savings are roughly $20 per month per $200,000 borrowed -- or $100 per month based on their original, post-March 31 forecast.

It brings us to one of the most important axioms in rate shopping: You can't shop for good luck.

• On some days, rates go higher
  
  
• On some days, rates go lower
  
  
• On some days, rates stay the same
  

Occasionally, there are days when rates do all three.

As a home buyer or would-be refinancer, what rate you get depends on at what time of day you do your shopping.

You can't predict what will happen next in mortgage markets -- even just an hour from now.

Therefore, the smartest move, sometimes, is just lock your rate now. At least that way, you've got a guarantee.

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : May 10, 2010

Mortgage markets improved to their best levels of 2010 last week, aided by events half a world away and ongoing safe haven buying. Greece's debt problems continue to help mortgage rate shoppers around the country.

Conventional mortgage rates dropped last week, ARMs falling more than fixed. FHA mortgage rates also improved.

Global concern for the Greece Situation are so strong that markets even shrugged off April's blowout job report. On most other days, mortgage rates would soar on better-than-expected jobs data -- especially coming out of a recession.

The Department of Labor's April Non-Farm Payrolls reports:

• Payrolls have been net positive for 4 straight months
  
  
• Nearly 600,000 jobs have been created thus far in 2010
  
  
• Monthly job growth posted its biggest gain in 4 years in April
  

Additionally, more than 800,000 Americans re-entered the workforce in April in search of work.

As a result, the Unemployment Rate jumped by 0.2 percent -- another positive sign (in a roundabout way).

But again, Wall Street wasn't watching jobs -- Wall Street was watching Greece. And Greece was in riot.

This week, without much new data due on the economy, mortgage markets should continue to take cues from Greece, the IMF and the Eurozone. If a bailout agreement can be reached that investors feel is effective, the safe haven buying that's led rates lower will recede and mortgage rates should rise.

Conversely, if an agreement is reached that investors deem ineffective, or no agreement is reached at all, mortgage rates should drop.

Each week for the last four weeks, we've talked about Greece and its pending bailout and how it might impact rates because each week the bailout appears imminent. Even this week, the market opens with the news that the IMF has approved a $40 billion lifeline to Greece. Maybe this will be the news that finally turns the mortgage market around.

Mortgage rates are unnaturally low right now and should change direction quickly. The problem is nobody knows when that will happen so be careful when rate shopping and keep an eye on the market.

Mortgage rates may fall further, but when they turn higher, they're going to turn quickly.

1 In 8 Banks Tightened Prime Mortgage Standards Last Quarter

The Federal Reserve says that financial markets "remain supportive of economic growth". Residential mortgage guidelines, however, continue to tighten.

If you've applied for a home loan recently, you probably felt it; extra scrutiny on income, assets and credit scores, among other things. The hard proof of the changes, however, can be found in the Federal Reserve's quarterly survey of its member banks.

Every 3 months, the Federal Reserve asks senior bank loan officers around the country whether their respective banks' "prime" residential mortgage guidelines tightened since the last survey.For the period January-March 2010, 1 in 8 banks surveyed toughened their qualification standards.

Only 4% loosened them.

When we account for the Fed's survey in conjunction with new underwriting standards from Fannie Mae and FHA, it's clear that getting approved for a mortgage in 2010 is more difficult than at any time in recent memory.

Today's homeowners and home buyers have taller hurdles to leap:

• Minimum FICO scores are higher
  
  
• Downpayment/equity requirements are larger
  
  
• Debt-to-Income thresholds are smaller
  

In other words, mortgage rates may stay low throughout 2010, but that won't matter to homeowners failing to meet the new, minimum eligibility standards as set forth by the lenders.

If you're among the many people wondering if now is the right time to buy or refinance a home, remember that -- along with a probable increase in mortgage rates -- mortgage approvals are getting more scarce.

The best home price or mortgage rate in the world won't matter if you're ineligible for financing.

Fannie Mae Tightens Guidelines On ARMs And Interest Only Products

For the first time this year, Fannie Mae announced significant updates to its mortgage underwriting guidelines.

The changes include newer, harsher ARM qualification standards, the elimination of a once-popular loan product, and tighter rules for interest only mortgages.

Fannie Mae made its official announcement April 30, 2010. The changes will roll out to home buyers and homeowners over the next 12 weeks.

The first guideline change is tied to ARMs of 5 years or less.

Mortgage applicants must now qualify based on a mortgage rate 2% higher than their note rate.

For example, if your mortgage rate is 5 percent, for qualification purposes, your rate would be 7 percent.

The elevated qualification payment will disqualify borrowers whose debt-to-income levels are borderline.

The second change is Fannie Mae's elimination of the standard 7-year balloon mortgage. Balloon mortgages were popular early last decade. Lately, few borrowers have chosen them, though.

Mostly because rates have been relative high as compared to a comparable 7-year ARM.

And, lastly, Fannie Mae is changing its interest only mortgages guidelines.

Effective June 19, 2010, Fannie Mae interest only mortgages must meet the following criteria:

1. The home must be a 1-unit property
   
   
2. The home must be a primary residence, or vacation home
   
   
3. The borrower's FICO must be 720 or higher
   

The mortgage must be a purchase, or rate-and-term refinance. No "cash out" allowed.

Furthermore, borrowers using interest only mortgages must show two full years of mortgage payments "in the bank" at the time of closing.

Earlier this year, Fannie Mae-sister Freddie Mac announced that as of September 2010, it will stop offering interest only loans altogether.

Between Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, the FHA, and other government-supported entities, the U.S. government now backs 96.5% of the U.S. mortgage market. So long as mortgage default rates are high, expect approvals for all borrower types to continue to toughen.

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : May 3, 2010

Mortgage markets improved last week on tame inflation data, a benign statement from the Federal Reserve, and ongoing credit problems in Greece.

The factors combined to drop conforming mortgage rates to their lowest levels in 6 weeks.

It's an unexpected development considering that mortgage rates were supposed to rise post March 31, 2010. That was the day the Fed's support for mortgage markets ended.

Since then, however, a month-long string of devastating economic and meteorological events within the Eurozone sparked a global flight-to-quality that benefited "safe" assets such as mortgage bonds.

May 2010 may not be so kind.

The week starts with news that Greece reached a $147 billion bailout agreement with the IMF Sunday. This is a plus for the Eurozone and mortgage market negative. Rates should rise on the bailout.

Also on Monday, the government releases Personal Consumptions and Expenditures data.
PCE is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge and it's expected to show an annual read of 1.3 percent. Anything higher and rates should rise.

Then, for the rest of the week, employment data takes center stage.

• Wednesday : ADP releases its private sector employment data
  
  
• Thursday : The government releases initial jobless claims
  
  
• Friday : The government releases April's job report
  

Jobs are key to the U.S. economic recovery, tied to consumer spending, consumer confidence, and mortgage delinquencies. If job growth is better than expected, mortgage rates should rise. If job growth is worse, rates should fall.

There's no "best day" to lock this week so keep an eye on the market. However, if rates rise as quickly in May as they fell in April, you won't have much time to act.