California Mortgage Lending Group

New Team Member

2011-01-12T08:49:00.000-08:00

Happy New Year!!! I'm happy to announce that I have teamed up with KSFO's Hot Talk Radio Host and Financial Advisor Greg O'Donnell. Greg's program, "Money Matters" airs on Saturdays at noon. Tune in soon...

If you are trying to access your PLANMEMBER account, you can login at www.PlanMember.com, using your same credentials.

I look forward to speaking with you soon!

Sean

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : November 22, 2010

2010-11-22T06:55:00.000-08:00

Mortgage markets worsened last week as the U.S. dollar gave up ground in currency markets, and inflation concerns mounted.

In response to the events, conforming mortgage rates in California rose for the third straight week.

Mortgage rates have now climbed by as much as half-percent since the start of the month, and Freddie Mac reports average loan fees to be higher, too.

The 7-month rally in rates may be nearing its end. The 30-year fixed rate mortgage is at a 4-month high after reaching an all-time low just 3 weeks ago.

The abrupt change in rates makes for an interesting study in expectations, and how they can influence a market.

Remember, inflation is bad for mortgage rates. Inflation devalues the dollar which, as a consequence, devalues repayments made to mortgage bond holders. As a result, when inflation is present, mortgage bonds tend to sell-off which causes mortgage rates to rise.

This is what’s been happening these past 3 weeks. However, we’re not in an inflationary environment. To the contrary:

The Federal Reserve has said inflation is too low to be economically healthy
Last week, the Cost of Living posted its lowest year-over-year gain in history

But mortgage rates are rising anyway. This is because global investors believe the Fed’s most recent market intervention — a $600 billion bond purchase program — will later lead to inflation. Just on the expectation, markets are behaving like inflation is already here.

This week is holiday-shortened, and rates should remain volatile. There’s a bevy of data including the Existing and New Home Sales reports, consumer confidence data, and the FOMC Minutes from the November 3 meeting.

If you haven’t locked a mortgage rate, consider locking one today. Rates have farther to climb than the fall.

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2010-11-20T22:38:00.000-08:00

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Mortgage Rates Still Rising. Is This The End Of The Refi Boom?

2010-11-19T06:51:00.001-08:00

Rock-bottom mortgage rates may be gone for good. This week’s Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey shows in numbers what Arkansas rate shoppers have learned the hard way —

mortgage rates are spiking.

During the 7-day period ending November 18, the average 30-year, conforming fixed rate mortgage jumped to 4.39 percent, an increase of 0.22% from the week prior.

And it’s not just rates that are soaring. The average number of points charged to consumers increased to 0.9 percent last week. For most of the year, that cost had been 0.7 percent.

One “point” is equal to 1 percent of your loan size.

With the sudden rise in mortgage rates, we have to question whether the Refi Boom is ending.

Between April and early-November, conforming mortgage rates dropped more than a full percentage point and, during that time, a lot of Santa Cruz homeowners capitalized on the market. Refinance activity was strong; rates cut new lows each week.

Today, however, Wall Street sentiment is different. There’s a growing concern for the future of the U.S. dollar, and that’s making mortgage bonds less attractive to investors. As demand drops, so does the underlying bond’s price which, in turn, causes mortgage rates to rise.

Buy-sell patterns like this are common. The speed at which they’re changing is not. Mortgage lenders can barely keep up with the volatility, issuing up to 4 separate rate sheets in a day.

Therefore, if you’re shopping for mortgage rates, or wondering whether it’s finally time to join the Refi Boom, the time to lock is now. Mortgage rates should remain volatile through the New Year, at least. At what level they’ll be then, though, is anyone’s guess.

Housing Starts Data Much Better Than The Headlines Would Have You Believe

2010-11-18T06:05:00.001-08:00

Newspaper stories can be misleading sometimes — especially with respect to real estate. We saw a terrific example of this Wednesday.

A “Housing Start” is a privately-owned home on which construction has started and, according to the Commerce Department’s October 2010 data, Housing Starts data dropped by nearly 12 percent as compared to September.

The media jumped on the story, and its negative implications for the housing market overall.

A sampling of the headlines included:

Housing Starts Plunge: Market’s ‘Pulse is Faint’ (WSJ)
Housing Starts Tumble (Reuters)
Housing Starts Sink 11.7 Percent In October (NPR)

Although factually correct, the headlines are misleading. Yes, Housing Starts fell sharply in October, but if we strip out the volatile “5 or more units” portion of the data — a grouping that includes apartment buildings and condominiums — Housing Starts only fell 1 percent.

That’s a big difference. Especially because most new construction buyers in Santa Cruz and around the country don’t purchase entire condo buildings. They buy single-family residences.

As an illustration, 84% of October’s Housing Starts were single-family homes. The remaining starts were multi-units.

This is why the headlines don’t tell the whole story. The market that matters most to buyers — the single-family market — gets completely glossed over. The Housing Starts reading wasn’t nearly as awful as the papers would have you believe. Furthermore, it’s never mentioned that single-family Housing Permits climbed 1 percent last month, either.

According to the Census Bureau, 82% of homes start construction within 60 days of permit-issuance. Therefore, we can expect December’s starts to be higher, too.

Mortgage Rates Spike On Strong Retail Sales Data. Could 4 Percent Rates Be Done?

2010-11-16T06:51:00.000-08:00

If consumer spending is a key to economic recovery, the nation is on its way.

Monday, the Census Bureau released national Retail Sales figures for October and, for the second straight month, the data surged past expectation. Last month’s retail figures jumped 1.2 percent — the largest monthly jump since March — as total sales receipts climbed to a 2-year high.

Consumer confidence is rising, too. Though still below the long-term trend, confidence in the future up-ticked in October.

The current confidence reading is now double the low-point from February 2009.

It’s no surprise that both Retail Sales and Consumer Confidence are higher. They correlate in a common-sense-type manner. When consumers are more confident in the economy, they’re more likely to spend their money. This, in turn, leads to more purchases and rising retail receipts.

Unfortunately, for home buyers and rate shoppers in Scotts Valley , it also leads to rising mortgage rates.

Because consumer spending accounts for two-thirds of the economy, spending growth leads to economic growth. But it’s been a lack of growth that’s kept mortgage rates this low.

When the growth starts, the low rates end. It’s why mortgage rates have added as much as 1/2 percent over the past 10 days. Consider the recent “good news”:

Retail Sales made a 2-year high in October
Existing and New Home Sales showed big improvement in September
Jobs growth returned in October

The days of 4 percent, 30-year fixed rate mortgages may be nearing its end. If you’re still floating a mortgage rate or thinking of buying or refinancing, consider the impact of rising rates on your budget.

The time to act may be sooner than you had planned.

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : November 15, 2010

2010-11-15T06:53:00.000-08:00

In a holiday-shortened trading week, mortgage markets tanked last week, casting doubt on whether the bond market’s 7-month bull run will continue. Fears of inflation caused conforming mortgage rates to rise in Arkansas.

Last week marked the first sizable mortgage rate increase over the course of 7 days since April.

The biggest reason why rates rose last week was because of concerns that the Federal Reserve’s latest round of stimulus will devalue the U.S. dollar.

The Fed pledged an additional $600 billion to the bond markets two weeks ago and, to meet this obligation, the group will have to, quite literally, print new money.

It’s Supply and Demand. With more dollars in circulation, every existing dollar is worth less.

It’s also inflationary.

As the Fed’s pledge ties back to mortgage rates, remember that mortgage bondholders are paid in U.S. dollars. So, if those dollars are expected to be worth less in the future, we would expect mortgage bond demand to fall. And that’s exactly what happened last week — investors rarely clamor for assets whose value drops over time.

The falling demand dropped down prices, and pushed up yields. Mortgage rates spiked.

This week, the trend could continue. There’s a lot of inflation-signaling data on tap:

Monday : Retail Sales
Tuesday : Producer Price Index; Consumer Confidence; Housing Market Index
Wednesday : Consumer Price Index; Housing Starts
Thursday : Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims

Analysts are calling for lukewarm data this week; none of the releases is expected to show strong growth. If the analysts are wrong, look for rates to rise again.

Momentum is moving away from rate shoppers. If you’ve yet to lock in a rate, consider doing it now.

Fed Survey : Mortgage Guidelines Tighten Further, Freeze Out Would-Be Refinancers

2010-11-10T06:40:00.001-08:00

It’s getting tougher to get approved for a mortgage. Still.

In its quarterly survey of senior loan officers around the country, the Federal Reserve asked whether “prime” residential mortgage guidelines” have tightened in the prior 3 months.

A “prime” borrower typically carries a well-documented credit history with high credit scores, has a low debt-to-income ratio, and uses a traditional fixed-rate or adjustable-rate mortgage.

For the period July-September 2010, 52 of 54 responding loan officers admitted to tightening their prime guidelines, or leaving them “basically unchanged”.

Just 4% of banks loosened their lending standards.

If you’ve applied for a home loan lately — for either purchase or refinance — you’ve likely experienced the effects of the last 4 years. Because of delinquencies and defaults, today’s mortgage underwriters are forced to scrutinize income, assets and credit scores, among other facets of an home loan application.

Mortgage applicants in Scotts Valley have higher hurdles to clear:

Minimum credit scores are higher versus last year
Downpayment/equity requirements are larger versus last year
Debt-to-Income ratios must be lower versus last year

In other words, although mortgage rates are the lowest they’ve been in history, qualification standards are not. Minimum eligibility requirements are tougher, and appear to be toughening still.

If you’re among the many people wondering if now is the right time to join the Refinance Boom, or to buy a home, consider that, while mortgage rates may fall further, eligibility standards may not.

Low mortgage rates don’t matter if you can’t qualify for them.

Pending Home Sales Slip In September, Suggesting A Buyer’s Market Until January

2010-11-09T06:49:00.000-08:00

After 3 straight months of improvement, the Pending Home Sales Index slid lower in September. As compared to August, September’s reading fell 2 percent.

A “pending home sale” is a home under contract to sell, but not yet closed. The data is drawn from a combination of local real estate associations and national brokers, and represents 20 percent of all purchase transactions in a given month.

Because of the large sample set, and because 80 percent of homes under contract close within 60 days, the Pending Home Sales Index is a terrific future indicator for the housing market.

A high correlation exists between the Pending Home Sales Index and the NAR’s monthly Existing Home Sales report issued two months hence.

Expect home sales to idle into the New Year, therefore.

For home buyers in Santa Cruz, this is good news. Over the last two months, housing markets have overwhelmingly favored home sellers.

Consider than, since June, the volume of both new home sales and existing home sales has increased, causing the available home inventory to fall by months. Meanwhile, helped by low interest rates, demand from buyers has remained relatively stable.

As with everything in economics, falling supply with constant demand leads to higher prices.

Therefore, the Pending Home Sales Index’s fading September figures suggest a more balanced supply-and-demand curve in the months ahead, a move that should suppress rising home prices and shift negotiation leverage back to the buy-side.

So long as mortgage rates remain rock bottom, the autumn season is looking like a terrific time to buy.

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : November 8, 2010

2010-11-08T06:59:00.001-08:00

Mortgage markets took a roller coaster ride last week, powered by the dual-force of the Federal Open Market Committee, and the government’s monthly Non-Farm Payrolls report.

As standalone events, both releases would have ranked among the top market movers of the year anyway, but throw in the rest of the week’s data –including the release of key inflation figures and the midterm elections — and it’s no wonder the bond markets were so bumpy.

Huge gains and losses characterized day-to-day trading last week.

Overall, however, conforming mortgage rates in Arkansas improved; fixed-rate mortgage rates fell slightly less than adjustable-rate ones.

Recapping last week’s economic news:

Core PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, posted a lower-than-expected 1.2% annual growth.
The Federal Reserve announced a $600 billion package to support the economy; more than most estimates.
According to the government, 151,000 new jobs were created last month. Economists expected 61,000.

Additionally, the Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing Index showed strong sector growth.

With each new surprise, Wall Street’s expectations adjusted for the future and, therefore, mortgage rates changed.

This week, the direction that rates take is anyone’s guess. First, there’s no substantive economic data due for release and, second, markets are closed Thursday for Veteran’s Day. The absence of data coupled with lower volume expected overall may mean that market momentum rules the week.

In other words, if mortgage markets open the week better, they may close the week better, too.

Conversely, if rates start rising, they could rise by a lot.

If you’re still floating a mortgage rate or have yet to us about a potential refinance, there’s no better time than the present. Mortgage rates are on a 6-month rally and most eligible homeowners stand to save a lot of money.

Make that call this week — just in case market momentum carries mortgage rates higher.

A Simple Explanation Of The Federal Reserve Statement (November 3, 2010 Edition)

2010-11-04T06:24:00.001-07:00

Yesterday, the Federal Open Market Committee voted 9-to-1 to leave the Fed Funds Rate unchanged within in its target range of 0.000-0.250 percent.

In its press release, the FOMC noted that, since September’s meeting, the pace of economic and job growth “continues to be slow”. Housing starts are “depressed”, income growth is “modest” and commercial real estate investment is “weak”.

With respect to its prior economic stimuli, the Fed deemed the recovery “disappointingly slow”, while, at the same time, noting that growth will come.

The Fed also noted that inflation is running lower that what’s optimal, hinting at the potential for deflation.

Lastly, the Fed re-acknowledged its plan to hold the Fed Funds Rate near zero percent “for an extended period”, and also announced a new, $600 billion support package for the bond market.

In most instances, a move like this would drive mortgage rates lower, but the Fed’s stimulus had been widely telegraphed, and $600 billion isn’t too far from the initial package estimates.

Mortgage market reaction is positive this morning. Mortgage rates in Santa Cruz are improving, but look for continued volatility in rates.

The FOMC’s next scheduled meeting is December 14, 2010 . It’s the last scheduled meeting of the year.

Better Credit Scores Get Better Mortgage Rates

2010-11-02T07:08:00.000-07:00

This week marks the start of the Refi Boom’s 7th month; rates have been falling since early-April 2010. Whether you’re looking to refinance or buy a home, however, know that not everyone will qualify for today’s low rates.

Mortgage approvals are primarily based on good income, good equity and strong credit, and, without all three, the best rates of the day remain out of reach. Now, you can’t always ask for a raise and equity is a function of the housing market, but you can do something about your credit score.

In this 4-minute segment from NBC’s The Today Show, you learn some credit basics to help propel your score higher:

There’s no “quick fix” for credit. Time + Good Credit Behavior = Better FICOs.
Pay every bill when it comes due. Even one late payment can damage your score.
Don’t close old credit cards

Also among the segment’s advice is to stop worrying about whether rates have bottomed.

Refinance today if it makes financial sense. Then, if, by chance, rates fall in the future, just refinance again.

We have a simple spreadsheet to show you if it makes financial sense to refinance. Give us a call and we will run it for you. Don't wait! Rates will not be at this level forever.

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : November 1, 2010

2010-11-01T06:53:00.000-07:00

Mortgage markets remained highly volatile for the second straight week last week. Yet, over the course of 5 days, mortgage bonds ended the week relatively unchanged.

Conforming rates in California worsened last Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday — rising as much as 3/8 percent as compared to the week prior — before settling lower through Thursday and Friday.

On the week overall, 30-year fixed rates worsened, 15-year fixed held steady, and 5-year ARMs improved.

And despite all the data released last week, it wasn’t the fundamentals that were causing rates to move. Instead, Wall Street was firmly focused on the Federal Reserve’s scheduled 2-day meeting this week; preoccupied with the likelihood of new Fed stimulus program.

The Fed’s meeting adjourns Wednesday and the group is widely expected to announce a new round of bond market support at that time. Uncertainty over how big that package will be, however, is what’s causing rates to jump.

Market estimates range from $250 billion to over $1 trillion and when Wall Street expectations shifts toward the lower end of that range, mortgage rates have been rising. When expectations shifts toward the upper range, mortgage rates have been falling.

This is why it’s all eyes on the Fed this week. Once the Fed adjourns, there’s no more “expectation” — there’s only Fed commitment.

Other than the Federal Reserve’s get-together, there isn’t much new data due for release. The week’s calendar looks like this:

Monday : Personal Income and Spending reports
Wednesday : FOMC adjourns from its 2-day meeting
Thursday : Initial and continuing jobless claim data
Friday : Pending Home Sales, Jobs Report, Unemployment Rate

It’s unlikely that data will swing mortgage rates until after the Fed’s Wednesday adjournment, but, once that happens, expect bond market attention to shift to the October jobs report set for 8:30 AM ET release Friday morning. If jobs data is strong, mortgage rates should rise.

All things considered, it’s dangerous to float a mortgage rate this week. If you’re not already locked, talk to us prior to Wednesday afternoon.

Foreclosure Activity By Metro Area, Q3 2010

2010-10-29T06:52:00.000-07:00

Foreclosures are a big part of the housing market, with distressed properties accounting for 35 percent of all home resales last month, according to the National Association of REALTORS®.

But for as common as foreclosures can be, they remain a localized concern. Data from foreclosure-tracking firm RealtyTrac shows that more than half of last quarter’s foreclosures came from just 19 metropolitan areas, with the Miami-Fort Lauderdale are accountable for the largest number of filings.

A “foreclosure filing” is defined as a default notice, scheduled auction, or bank repossession.

On a per-household basis last quarter, the Las Vegas area was hardest hit. 1 in every 25 households received some form of foreclosure notice.

The RealtyTrac report features other interesting figures, too:

California, Florida, Arizona and Nevada account for the top 10, and19 of the top 20 metro areas for foreclosures
Compared to Q3 2009, foreclosure activity dropped in 72 metro areas, including No. 2 Cape Coral/Fort Myers, FL
Foreclosure activity dropped 1 percent from Q3 2009 in the nation’s 20 most-populated cities

And, despite a 27 percent increase in foreclosures from the second quarter, Utica/Rome, NY posted the lowest foreclosure rate in the nation — 1 for every 8,003 households. The next closest city, Charleston, WV, posted 1 for every 2,600 households, by comparison.

Foreclosures, like everything in real estate, are local. And buying them is “different” from buying a typical home resale. If you’re planning to buy a foreclosed home, speak with a real estate agent with specific experience with homes in foreclosure. Professional advice is helpful.

Existing Home Sales Jump; Housing Market Shows Spark

2010-10-26T06:43:00.001-07:00

Existing home sales jumped 10 percent in September, the biggest monthly jump on record and a signal that the housing market may be returning to a normal sales pattern post-$8,000 federal tax credit.

Existing Home Sales counts home resales (i.e. not new construction) and 80 percent of home resales close within 45-60 days. It’s no surprise, therefore, September’s data is strong.

Throughout the July and August, mortgage rates were in free-fall, pushing home affordability to near-record levels.

Concurrently, the number of homes available for sale climbed to multi-year highs.

“Deals” were in ample supply this summer and eager Santa Cruz home buyers snatched them up.

Some of these deals included “distressed properties”, a categorization that includes homes in various stages of foreclosure or short sale, accounted for 35 percent of all sales, an uptick of 1 percent from August.

According to the National Association of Realtors®, home resales split as follows:

First-time buyers : 32 percent of all buyers
Repeat home buyers : 50 percent of all buyers
Investors : 18 percent of all buyers

By contrast, in November 2009, first-timers accounted for more than half of all resales.

At the current pace of sales, the complete housing stock would be depleted in 10.7 months.

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : October 25, 2010

2010-10-25T06:34:00.000-07:00

Mortgage markets improved last week overall, but barely. After making a sizable move lower through Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday, mortgage pricing jumped Thursday and Friday.

Nearly all of the early-week gains were erased.

Conforming mortgage rates in California ended the week slightly improved.

There wasn’t much economic news on which for markets to trade last week. In its absence, bond traders took cues from the currency markets, among other things.

Mortgage rates are closely tied to the value of the U.S. dollar.

This is because mortgage bond investors are repaid in U.S. dollars and, as the dollar gains value, demand for dollar-denominated bonds tend to grow.

More demand for bonds raises prices which, in turn, lowers rates.

Bond prices and bond yields move in opposite directions.

The dollar was strong in the first part of last week, then weakened through Friday’s close with the G-20 meeting looming. Mortgage rates trended along similar lines.

This week, there’s a return to data and mortgage markets should respond — especially because the week is housing-data heavy. Housing is believed to be a key part of the country’s ongoing economic recovery.

Monday : Existing Home Sales
Tuesday : Case-Shiller Index, Consumer Confidence, Home Price Index
Wednesday : New Home Sales
Thursday : Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims

Mortgage rates are near all-time lows and it’s unclear whether they’ll stay this low, or start rising. Either way, if you haven’t talked to your loan officer about a refinance at today’s great pricing, set aside some time this week to do that.

Once rates reverse higher, they’re unlikely to fall back down

Time To Refinance? Mortgage Rates Down 1% Since April.

2010-10-22T06:31:00.000-07:00

30-year fixed mortgage rates rose last week, marking the first time in a month that rates failed to fall week-to-week.

The data sources from Freddie Mac, one of the government’s major mortgage securitizers and a sister entity to Fannie Mae. Each week, Freddie Mac collects mortgage rate data from more than 120 lenders nationwide and publishes the results in a report called the Primary Mortgage Market Survey.

According to this week’s PMMS, the 30-year fixed rate rose 0.02% and now averages 4.21% nationally. The average accompanying cost is 0.8 points.

1 point is equal to 1 percent of the loan amount.

Note, though, that these are just averages. Just as real estate markets are local, mortgage rates can be, too. As an illustration, look how this week’s rates break down by region:

Northeast : 4.22 with 0.8 points
Southeast : 4.30 with 0.8 points
N. Central : 4.19 with 0.8 points
Southeast : 4.23 with 0.7 points
West : 4.17 with 1.0 points

The rate-and-fee combination you’d get in your home state of Arkansas , in other words, is different from the rate-and-fee combination you’d get if you lived somewhere else. In the West, rates are low and fees are high; in the Southeast, it’s the opposite.

The good news is that, as a rate shopper, you can have it whichever way you prefer. If getting the absolute lowest mortgage rate is worth the extra cost to you, have your loan officer structure to structure your loan as such. Or, if you prefer higher rates and lower costs, you can go that route, too.

Banks offer multiple mortgage set-ups to meet every type of budget and, with rates down 1.00% since April 8, there’s good cause to call us about a mortgage refinance. See what set-up will work best for you.

As Buyer Foot Traffic Rises, So Does Homebuilder Confidence

2010-10-19T06:54:00.001-07:00

As the “pulse of the single-family housing market”, the Housing Market Index is a monthly product of the National Association of Homebuilders. Its scores range from 1-100, with a reading a 50 or better suggesting “favorable conditions” for builders.

Because of its methodology, the Housing Market Index can offer excellent insight into the Arkansas market for newly-built homes. This is because its value is a composite of three survey questions:

How are market conditions today?
How do market conditions look 6 months from now?
How is the prospective traffic of new buyers for new homes?

Builder responses are collected, weighted, then presented as the Housing Market Index.

According to the NAHB, October’s HMI reading of 16 is its highest value in 5 months. The uptick hints that the market for newly-built homes may rebound more quickly that this summer’s weak new homes sales figures would otherwise suggest.

You’ll remember that, between April and August, the number of new homes sold per month fell by 30 percent and the available, new home inventory climbed 2.3 months.

This month, though, builders report much better foot traffic and, as a result, have raised their expectations for the next six months of sales. Low mortgage rates are likely aiding the optimism, too.

As compared to 1 year ago, average, 30-year fixed mortgage rates are lower by 0.75 percent, a payment savings of $45 per $100,000 borrowed

Fed Minutes Edge Mortgage Rates Higher

2010-10-13T06:48:00.000-07:00

The Federal Reserve released its September 21, 2010 meeting minutes Tuesday afternoon. Mortgage rates in California are slightly higher today.

It’s unwelcome news for this season’s home buyers, and existing homeowners with plans to grab lower rates. Mortgage rates made new lows last week and may have reached a turn-around point.

The “Fed Minutes” is published 8 times annually, and is the official meeting recap for the Federal Open Market Committee. Similar to the meeting minutes released after a corporate conference or condo association gathering, the Fed Minutes details the conversation and debate between meeting attendees.

Minutes are the lengthy companion to the Fed’s brief, post-meeting press release.

Because of its content, the Fed Minutes is closely read by Wall Street and economists. It’s insight into the talk that shapes our nation’s monetary policy and, within the text, there’s often clues about the Fed’s next move.

Here’s some of what the Fed discussed last month:

On inflation : It’s running at lower-than-optimal levels
On housing : Post-tax credit, housing stalled in July
On stimulus : The Fed may intervene in open markets within the next few months

The over-riding theme within the minutes was that the U.S. economy is growing a steady pace, albeit slower than what’s optimal. The Fed is prepared to push things along if the economy slows further and news like that is helping stock markets.

Bond markets are losing. Rates are rising.

For now, mortgage rates hover near all-time lows. If you haven’t locked a mortgage rate yet, your window may be closing. Once the economy turns around for certain, mortgage rates will be among the first of the casualties

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : October 12, 2010

2010-10-12T08:58:00.000-07:00

Mortgage markets improved last week on mixed messages about the economy, and a growing belief that the government will move to stimulate the economy.

Conforming mortgage rates in California eased lower.

According to Freddie Mac’s weekly mortgage market survey, average mortgage rates nationwide fell to new all-time lows last week. On the other side of that point, however, is that the accompanying “points” for today’s low rates have climbed to their highest levels of 2010.

In other words, mortgage rates are down, but closing costs are up.

There were two main stories driving mortgage rates last week.

The first was the Federal Reserve.

Although nothing has been said specifically, markets are speculating that the government will add new layers of market support to spark the economy.

The prevailing thought is that — if there’s intervention — the Fed will buy treasuries and mortgage bonds, driving up prices and pushing down yields. Rates dropped last week in anticipation of such a move.

The second factor in falling mortgage rates was Friday’s jobs report.

Economists expected the economy to shed 5,000 jobs in September. Instead, it lost 95,000, anchored by the elimination of temporary census workers and job losses in local governments.

The private sector didn’t fare so poorly, adding sixty-four thousand jobs. However, that, too, fell short of expectations.

The results contributed to a mortgage market rally already in-process.

This week, there’s a number of releases that should keep mortgage rates on the move — up and down — including Fed Minutes (Tuesday), Producer Price Index (Thursday), and Consumer Price Index, Retail Sales and a confidence survey (Friday).

Mortgage rates are low and may not stay that way. If you’re floating a mortgage rate, or wondering whether now is the time to lock, talk to us today. Rates are expected be volatile this week.

Jobs Data Shows Private Sector Growth, Hints At Lower Mortgage Rates

2010-10-08T06:47:00.000-07:00

On the first Friday of each month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its Non-Farm Payrolls report from the month prior.

This month, though, because the first Friday of the month was also the first day of the month, the report was delayed one week.

The report hit the wires at 8:30 AM ET this morning.

More commonly called “the jobs report”, the government’s non-farm payrolls data influences stock and bond markets, and, in the process, swings a big stick with home affordability figures in Santa Cruz and nationwide.

Especially in today’s economic climate.

Although the recession has been deemed over, Wall Street remains unconvinced. Data fails to show the economy moving strongly in one direction or the other and, absent job creation, economists believe growth to be illusionary.

Consider:

With job creation comes more income, and more spending.
With more spending comes growth in business
With growth in business comes more job creation

And the cycle continues.

The prevailing thought is that, without jobs, consumer spending can’t sustain and consumer spending accounts for two-thirds of the economy. No job growth, no economy recovery.

But there’s another angle to the jobs report, too; one that connects to the housing market. As the jobs market recovers, today’s renters are more likely to become tomorrow’s homeowners, and today’s homeowners are more likely to “move-up” to bigger homes. This means more competition for homes at all price points and, therefore, higher home values.

And that brings us to today’s jobs data.

According to the government, 95,000 jobs were lost in September. Economists expected a net loss of 5,000. However, if public sector jobs are excluded from the final figures, jobs grew by 64,000. This is a positive for the private-sector, but still trailed expectations.

Wall Street is voting with its dollars right now and mortgage bonds are gaining, improving mortgage pricing.

So, although the September 2010 jobs report doesn’t reflect well on the economy overall, home affordability in California and around the country should improve as a result.

Fannie Mae Rolls Out New Lending Rules December 13, 2010

2010-10-07T06:29:00.001-07:00

Starting Monday, December 13, 2010, Fannie Mae is changing its mortgage lending guidelines.

For some mortgage applicants in California, the loan approval process will simplify. For others, it will toughen.

How you’ll be affected personally will depend on your credit profile and your loan characteristics.

Among the biggest changes from Fannie Mae is a new set of guidelines for gift funds. When the new rules roll out, accepting cash gifts for downpayment will be easier.

Under the new guidelines, buyers of owner-occupied, 1-unit properties (i.e. single-family homes, condos, townhomes) can forgo Fannie Mae’s typical, minimum 5% personal downpayment contribution. Downpayments on homes meeting the above criteria can be comprised of 100% gifted and/or granted funds.

Buyers of second homes and multi-unit properties, however, are not exempt.

There’s also two changes pending with respect to revolving debt.

Debt with less than 10 payments remaining may no longer be waived in debt-to-income ratio calculations
Debt lacking a monthly payment on credit must be assigned a payment equal to 5% of the outstanding balance

Both of the above should increase the number of loan denials in 2011.

And, lastly, Fannie Mae changes some of its documentation requirements, the most noticeable of which will be with respect to income verification. Salaried workers and applicants whose commission/bonus accounts for less than a quarter of their income will have fewer paystubs to produce for underwriting.

Loan applications taken prior to December 13, 2010 are exempt from the new rules.

Fannie Mae’s complete guideline changes are available online at https://www.efanniemae.com/sf/guides/ssg/annltrs/pdf/2010/sel1013.pdf.

2011 Conforming Loan Limits : No Change From 2010

2010-10-06T06:39:00.000-07:00

Conforming mortgages is so named because, literally, they conform to the mortgage guidelines set forth by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Of the many traits of a conforming mortgage, one is “loan size” and loan sizes have limits. Mortgages exceeding this loan size limit cannot be securitized as a conforming mortgage and, therefore, are ineligible for conforming mortgage rates.

Conforming mortgage rates are often the cheapest source of mortgage money for residents of Arkansas , all things equal.

Each year, the government re-evaluates its maximum allowable loan size based on “typical” housing costs nationwide. Loans in excess of this amount are often called “jumbo”.

Between 1980 and 2006, as home prices increased, so did conforming loan limits — from $93,750 to $417,000. Since 2006, however, home prices have retreated but the conforming loan limit has not.

In 2011, for the 6th consecutive year, $417,000 will be the country’s conforming mortgage loan limit.

Conforming loan limits very by property type. The complete breakdown is as follows:

1-unit properties : $417,000
2-unit properties : $533,850
3-unit properties : $645,300
4-unit properties : $801,950

Despite the limits, some parts of the country get “loan limit exceptions”. In areas considered “high cost”, conforming loan limits range from $417,001 to $729,750. High-cost is defined by the median sales price of a region.

Los Angeles County, for example, is a high-cost region, along with a lot of California. There are less than 200 such areas nationwide, though.

You can verify your local market’s loan limit via the Fannie Mae website. A complete county-by-county list is published online.

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : October 4, 2010

2010-10-04T06:21:00.001-07:00

For the third straight week, mortgage markets showed little conviction in the face of contrasting data. Mortgage bonds ended the week slightly better, but mortgage rates did not.

Conforming mortgage rates in Arkansas were up-and-down all week before ending the week with a slight worsening. The inter-day volatility has come to characterize the current mortgage market.

In part, rates are jumpy because of data; it’s unclear when the economy is expanding or contraction — despite the “official call” of the recession’s end in June 2009.

Consider the conflicting reports from last week. Separate Consumer Confidence reports showed sentiment falling in September, but on the other hand:

Initial jobless claims dropped 3%
Household income is shown to be rising
GDP is improving year-over-year

In other words, the economy is in recovery, but the average Arkansas citizen isn’t believing it.

That causes purse-strings to stay tight, thereby retarding economic growth.

Wall Street is struggling with the contrast, and constantly changing its outlook. It’s making mortgage rates tough to pin down and this week should reflect that. In addition to a home sales report and new consumer confidence data, the government prints its market-moving Non-Farm Payrolls report.

More commonly called “the jobs report”, Non-Farm Payrolls details the workforce, its size, and its Unemployment Rate. There’s expected to be little change from August, a month considered “fair” by recent employment standards. If the jobs report shows improvement and/or strength, look for mortgage rates to rise. If the report does deterioration and/or weakness, look for mortgage rates to fall.

The Non-Farm Payrolls will be released Friday at 8:30 AM ET

As Homebuilder Confidence Stagnates, Deals Abound

2010-10-01T06:52:00.001-07:00

Home builder confidence held firm this month, according to the National Association of Home Builders’ monthly Housing Market Index. September’s reading of 13 equaled a 17-month low.

The HMI is on a 1-100 scale. A value of 50 or better indicates “favorable conditions” for home builders.

Broken down, the Housing Market Index is actually a weighted composite of 3 separate surveys which measures current single-family sales; projected single-family sales; and foot traffic of prospective buyers.

None of the 3 September surveys improved from August:
Single-Family Sales : 13 (unchanged from August)
Projected Single-Family Sales : 18 (unchanged from August)
Buyer Foot Traffic : 9 (from 10 in August)

Builder confidence is lower in 2010 than at any point in recorded history.

For home buyers in Arkansas , the drop in sentiment creates opportunity. With builders feeling “down”, there’s a greater likelihood for discounts and free upgrades. It can mean more house for your home buying money.

Plus, with the supply of both new and existing homes elevated, and foreclosures still hitting the market, conditions aren’t soon likely to change.

Then, couple all that with all-time low mortgage rates and monthly housing payments look as affordable as ever.

If your plans call for buying a home in the early part of 2011, you may want to consider moving up your time frame. Today’s market looks ripe for a good deal.

Case-Shiller Shows Slowing Growth In Home Prices… Two Months Ago

2010-09-29T06:40:00.001-07:00

For the 17th straight month, the Case-Shiller Index reports that home values are rising across the United States. As compared to June, July’s prices were up by 4 percent.

However, despite the improvement, July’s Case-Shiller Index showed weaker as compared to prior months.

In June, just 3 cities posted year-to-year reductions in home value. In July, 10 of 20 did.

In June, just 1 city posted a month-to-month reduction in home value. In July, 7 of 20 did.

As a spokesperson for Case-Shiller said, values “crept forward” in July. But not that it matters — the Case-Shiller Index is a better tool for economists than it is for homeowners in Arkansas. This is for 3 reasons.

First, the Case-Shiller Index is on a 60-day delay but real estate sales are based on prices today.

A lot can change in 60 days, and it often does. Therefore, the Case-Shiller Index is a better snapshot of the former market than the current one.

Second, the Case-Shiller Index is geographically-limited. It tracks just 20 cities, ignoring some of the largest metropolitan areas in the country including Houston, Philadelphia, and San Jose.

Smaller cities like Tampa are included.

And, lastly, national real estate data remains somewhat useless anyway. All real estate is local, rendering citywide statistics too broad to have any real meaning to an individual. To find out what’s happening on a neighborhood-by-neighborhood level, you can’t look to a national survey — you have to look to a local real estate agent instead.

A Simple Explanation Of Yesterday's Federal Reserve Statement

2010-09-22T06:28:00.000-07:00

Yesterday, in its 7th meeting of the year, the Federal Open Market Committee voted 9-to-1 to leave the Fed Funds Rate unchanged.

The Fed Funds Rate remains at a historical low, within a Fed’s target range of 0.000-0.250 percent.

In its press release, the FOMC said that the pace of economic recovery “has slowed” in recent months. Household spending is increasing but remains restrained by high levels of unemployment, falling home values, and restrictive credit.

For the second straight month, the Federal Reserve showed less economic optimism as compared to the prior year’s worth of FOMC statements dating back to June 2009. However, the Fed still expects growth to be “modest in the near-term”.

This outlook is consistent with recent research showing that the recession is over, and that growth has resumed — albeit at a slower pace than what was originally expected.

The Fed also highlighted strengths in the economy:

Growth is ongoing on a national level
Inflation levels remain exceedingly low
Business spending is rising

As expected, the Fed re-affirmed its plan to hold the Fed Funds Rate near zero percent “for an extended period”.

There were no surprises in the Fed’s statement so, as a result, the mortgage market’s reaction to the release has been neutral. Mortgage rates are thus far unchanged this afternoon.

The FOMC’s next meeting is a 2-day affair scheduled for November 2-3, 2010

The Federal Reserve Meets Today. Should You Lock Your Rate Before It Adjourns?

2010-09-21T07:36:00.001-07:00

The Federal Open Market Committee adjourns from its 6th scheduled meeting of the year today, and 7th overall.

Upon adjournment, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will release a formal statement to the market. In it, the Fed is expected to announce “no change” to the Fed Funds Rate.

Currently, the Fed Funds Rate is within a target range of 0.000-0.250 percent. It’s been at this same level since December 2008.

Note that the Feds Funds Rate is not “a mortgage rate” — nor is it a a consumer rate of any kind. The Fed Funds Rate is a rate that defines the cost of an overnight loan between banks. And, although the Fed Funds Rate has little direct consequence to everyday homeowners, it is the basis for Prime Rate, the interest rate on which most consumer cards are based, plus many business loans, too.

Therefore, because the Fed Funds Rate won’t change today, neither will credit card rates.

Mortgage rates, however, are a different story. Mortgage rates should change today — regardless of what the Fed does.

It’s more about what the Fed says.

In its statement, the Federal Reserve will highlight strengths and weaknesses in the economy, and threats to growth over the next few quarters. Depending on how Wall Street interprets these remarks, mortgage rates may rise or fall.

If the Fed’s comments signal better-than-expected growth, bond markets should lose and mortgage rates should rise. Conversely, if the Fed’s comments signal worse-than-expected growth, mortgage rates should fall.

If you’re actively shopping for a mortgage, it may be prudent to lock your rate ahead of the Fed’s announcement today. The Fed adjourns at 2:15 PM ET. Call us to lock your rate.

The Fed meets 8 times annually.

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : September 20, 2010

2010-09-20T06:48:00.000-07:00

Mortgage markets were highly volatile, yet relatively unchanged last week in back-and-forth trading on Wall Street.

Global investors are grappling with the state of U.S. economy and unable to discern whether it’s growing, or slowing.

As an real-world illustration, the government’s August Retail Sales report showed strong growth nationwide. However, in looking at a subset of that same data that accounted for rising gas prices, and excluded automotive-related sales, the results were far more tame.

In other words, despite the winning headlines, there was no clear conclusion in August’s Retail Sales.

As another example, consumer confidence dropped to its lowest level since August 2009, it was reported last week. Now, on most days, this statistic would lead mortgage rates lower, but the figures happened to be offset by improving employment report that suggests a looming jobs recovery.

Again, markets got confused and without clear direction, mortgage rates have been dancing.

Last week, conforming rates carved out a range close to 0.375 percent, making it difficult for rate shoppers to zero-in on pricing. 30-year fixed rates worsened, 15-year fixed held steady, and ARMs improved overall.

This week, expect rates to be equally jumpy. There’s a lot of housing data due for release and the Federal Open Market Committee is meeting.

Monday : Homebuilder Confidence Survey
Tuesday : Housing Starts, Building Permits, FOMC Meeting
Wednesday : FHFA Home Price Index
Thursday : Existing Home Sales
Friday : New Home Sales

That’s one housing-related release per day, and a Federal Reserve meeting to boot. Today’s low rates could be vanished by Friday.

Therefore, if you haven’t already, it may be time to us for a refinance. Rates could certainly fall further, but they’re looking more likely to rise.

Home Defaults Dropped For The 7th Month In A Row In August

2010-09-16T06:27:00.000-07:00

According to foreclosure-tracking firm RealtyTrac, the number of foreclosure filings climbed 4 percent in August from the month prior. A foreclosure filing is defined as default notice, scheduled auction, or bank repossession.

Despite the number of filings surpassing 300,000 for the 18th straight month, RealtyTrac’s report shows some bright spots for housing.

The number of default notices served per month fell for the 7th time this year
Foreclosure activity in Nevada, the nation’s leading foreclosure state, is down 25% from last August
Foreclosure activity has not materially increased since early-2009, pointing to a stabilization

In addition, each of the 10 leading metro areas for foreclosures posted year-over-year declines for the second month in a row.

But, perhaps, most important, is that mortgage lenders and servicers appear to be managing their REO more effectively, making properties available for sale at a measured pace as opposed to flooding markets with new homes. As noted by RealtyTrac, the probable reason is “to prevent further erosion of home prices”.

For home sellers, it’s a welcome development.

Foreclosures have had a hand in falling home values across the country. And, although it’s self-serving for banks to meter the release of homes under ownership, everyday homeowners benefit, too. Fewer homes on the market helps to provide a floor for housing values.

If you have an interest in buying foreclosed homes, be sure to talk with a real estate agent first.

The process of buying a home from a bank is different from buying from “a person”. Having the help of a professional should work to your benefit.

Home Affordability Gets A Boost From Weak Back-to-School Retail Receipts

2010-09-15T08:23:00.000-07:00

The recent rise in mortgage rates was slowed this week after the government released its Retail Sales report for August.

Prior to Tuesday, mortgage rates had been spiking on the resurgent hope for U.S. economic recovery. The sentiment shift was rooted in reports including the Pending Home Sales Index and Initial Jobless Claims, both of which showed surprising strength last week.

August’s Retail Sales, though, after removing motor vehicles, auto parts and gasoline sales, failed to maintain the momentum. Its figures were actually in-line with expectations — it’s just that expectations weren’t all that high.

Wall Street now wonders whether the weak Back-to-School shopping season will trend forward into the holidays.

The doubt spells good news for mortgage rates and home affordability.

Because Retail Sales is tied to consumer spending and consumer spending accounts for two-thirds of the economy, a weak reading tends to drag down stock markets and pump up bonds, and when bonds are in demand, mortgage rates fall.

This is exactly what happened Tuesday. The soft Retail Sales data eased stock markets down, and generated new demand for mortgage bonds. This demand caused bond prices to rise, which, in turn, caused mortgage rates to fall.

Mortgage rates did not cut new lows this week, but they’re very, very close.

With mortgage rates at historical lows, it’s an excellent time to look at a refinance, or gauge what financing a new home would cost. Low rates like this can’t last forever.

The Math Of Choosing A Great Closing Date

2010-09-14T06:52:00.000-07:00

Want a lower mortgage rate on your upcoming home buy?

Think about moving up the closing date.

The reason is rooted in “rate locks”, a bank’s guarantee to honor a specific mortgage rate for a specific, finite period of time. Rate locks allow home buyers to reserve mortgage rates today even though their respective closings may be scheduled as far as a year into the future.

A rate lock is a contract. No matter what the “current market rate” is at the time of closing, the bank will honor the terms of the original rate lock.

It would be like making an agreement to buy Microsoft stock at a specific price 60 days from now. No matter what the price, you already know what you’re paying for it.

In this sense, rate locks are predictions about the future and, meanwhile, as we all know, the future can be a challenge to forecast. Lenders know this, too, of course, so it’s easy to understand why longer rate locks tend to be more expensive than shorter ones.

The longer the rate lock, the more risk to the bank.

To compensate for this “time risk”, therefore, lenders typically step-up pricing for rate lock guarantees as lock period lengthen.

15-day rate lock : The best of all pricing
30-day rate lock : 1/8 percent extra cost versus the 15-day rate lock
45-day rate lock : 1/4 percent extra cost versus the 15-day rate lock
60-day rate lock : 3/8 percent extra cost versus the 15-day rate lock

One percent of “extra cost” is defined as one percent of the borrowed amount.

Now, this incremental price chart is just a rough guideline; exact spreads vary from lender-to-lender. Overall, however, it’s fairly close.

That’s why it’s important to manage your closing date vis-a-vis your mortgage rate. Closing in 30 days versus 31 can save you an eighth-percent in closing costs. Assuming a loan size of $200,000, that’s $2,500 saved.

So, when negotiating a closing date on a contract, keep in mind the math of mortgage rate locks.

The shorter its length, the more money you might save.

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : September 13, 2010

2010-09-13T16:20:00.000-07:00

A shift in Wall Street sentiment caused mortgage markets to worsen last week. There wasn’t much in the way of new data, but the numbers that did hit the street helped quell fears of a double-dip recession.

Conforming mortgage rates rose between Monday-Friday for the first time since June, and mortgage-backed securities have now lost ground on six of the last 7 trading days.

During this period, conforming mortgage rates have risen by as much as 0.375 percent.

Mortgage rates for FHA-insured home loans are higher, too.

Remember, concern for the future of the U.S. economy was a major catalyst for low rates this summer. The drop in rates, which began in April on weaker-than-expected data, accelerated through July and August on record-low home sales and a stalled jobs market.

Lately, though, these concerns are turning to hope.

The July Pending Home Sales Index showed that housing has life
Initial jobless claims came in much lower than expected
Retail Sales is expected to post a gain for August

The growing optimism is putting the Refi Boom at risk. To be sure, it’s been a rough two weeks to shop for a mortgage.

This week may figure no better. In addition to the Retail Sales data, there’s key inflation data due both Thursday and Friday, plus, two consumer confidence reports are set for release. If the overall numbers point to an “improving economy”, mortgage rates will likely rise again this week.

Momentum is moving in that direction, certainly.

If your looking for the right time to lock a rate, now may be the time. Mortgage rates are off their best levels of all-time, but still quite low. There’s lot of savings out there for homeowners who qualify.

Which Model Is More Accurate : The Case-Shiller Index Or The Home Price Index?

2010-09-09T06:23:00.001-07:00

The private-sector Case-Shiller Index reported home values up 5 percent nationwide in June.

The government’s own Home Price Index, however, reached a different conclusion.

According to the Federal Home Finance Agency, month-to-month home values fell 0.3 percent in June, and values are down by 1.7 percent from June 2009.

So, as a home buyer and/or homeowner , by which valuation model should you make your bets?

Perhaps neither.

This is because both the Case-Shiller Index and the Home Price have inherent methodology flaws, the most glaring of which is their respective sample sets.

The Case-Shiller sample set, for example, comes from just 20 cities across the country — and they’re not even the 20 most populated cities. Together, the Case-Shiller cities represent just 9 percent of the overall U.S. population.

That’s hardly representative of the housing stock overall.

By comparison, the Home Price Index tracks home sales everywhere — every city in every state — but it specifically excludes certain properties. The Home Price Index does not track sales of homes for which the financing comes from agencies other than Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. This means that as FHA loans grow in popularity, the pool of Home Price Index-eligible homes is reducing.

The HPI ignores homes backed by “jumbo” loans, too.

Therefore, the “right” model for home values cannot come from national data at all — it can only come locally. Neither Case-Shiller nor the government has the tools to get as granular as a neighborhood. A real estate agent in the area does, however.

The best way to get a pulse for what’s happening in markets right now is to talk to somebody with good data.

Home Sales Are Back On The Rise After A 2-Month Pullback

2010-09-08T06:58:00.000-07:00

Just one week after reports of Existing Home Sales and New Home Sales plunging, the housing market is signaling that auturm may fare better than did summer.

The number of homes under contract to sell rose 5 percent in July.

The data comes from the July Pending Home Sales Index, as published by the National Association of Realtors®. By definition, a “pending home sales” is a home that is sold, but not yet closed.

Historically, 80% of such homes close within 60 days which makes the Pending Home Sales Index an excellent, forward-looking indicator for the real estate market.

Indeed, the nationwide drop in home sales this summer was foreshadowed by the Pending Home Sales report. The index dropped 30 percent in May. Then, two months later in July, it was shown that Existing Home Sales volume dropped 29 percent.

That’s a strong correlation.

Now, to be fair, the July Pending Home Sales Index is still relatively low; the second-lowest on record and well below last year’s numbers. But, the tick higher last month shows how housing may be stronger than than what the headlines report.

It appears that buyers took advantage of rising inventory, cheap financing, and stagnant prices, and pushed the market forward. We should expect similarly promising numbers when September’s Existing Home Sales data is released.

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : September 7, 2010

2010-09-07T06:40:00.000-07:00

Last week was a roller-coaster ride in the conforming mortgage market. After opening the week by making new, all-time lows, markets reversed sharply on better-than-expected data in manufacturing and housing, and data from overseas.

Rates rose through Wednesday and Thursday, then Friday’s jobs report sent rates jumping.

Last week marked the first time that mortgage rates worsened 3 days in a row since late-April.

The combination of the jobs report not posting as poorly as predicted, and light volume because of Labor Day, pushed rates higher by as much as a quarter-percent in some markets.

On the week, conforming mortgage rates were unchanged but, depending on when you locked, there was great disparity. Tuesday’s rates were much better than Friday’s.

Meanwhile, this week, with little data due for release, mortgage rates should remain unpredictable, moving as a result of momentum and outside influence. It makes for dangerous times for rate shoppers. Mortgage rates may fall, but, then again, they might rise, too.

Keep in mind that markets are in the midst of a 19-week rally and rates can’t fall forever.

Mortgage bonds are likely overbought so when the selling begins, pricing should worsen quickly. This will cause mortgage rates to spike.

Therefore, if you’ve been shopping for a mortgage or are just wondering if the time is right to refinance, call us and we can work the numbers together. Refinancing won’t make sense for everyone, but it may make sense for you.

Mortgage rates are still exceptionally low.

August 2010 Jobs Report Pushes Mortgage Rates Higher

2010-09-03T06:41:00.001-07:00

On the first Friday of each month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases Non-Farm Payrolls data for the month prior.

The data is more commonly called “the jobs report” and it’s a major factor in setting mortgage rates for homeowners everywhere. Especially today, considering the economy.

This is because, although it’s believed that the recession of 2009 is over, there’s emerging talk of new recession starting.

Support for the argument is mixed:

Job growth has been slow, but planned layoffs touch a 10-year low
Consumer confidence is down, but beating expectations
Consumer spending is weak, but not declining

In other words, the economy could go in either direction in the latter half of 2010 and the jobs market may be the key. More working Americans means more paychecks earned, more taxes paid, and more money spent; plus, the confidence to purchase a “big ticket” items such as a home.

Jobs growth can provide tremendous support for housing, too.

Today, though, jobs growth was “fair”. According to the government, 54,000 jobs were lost in August, but that reflects the departure of 114,000 Census workers. The private sector (i.e. non-government jobs), by contrast, added 67,000.

In addition, net new jobs was revised higher for June and July by a total of 123,000. That’s a good-sized number, too.

Right now, Wall Street is reacting with enthusiasm, bidding up stocks at the expense of bonds — including mortgage-backed bonds. This is causing mortgage rates to rise. Rates should be higher by about 1/8 percent this morning.

August’s Fed Minutes Lead Mortgage Rates Higher

2010-09-02T06:15:00.001-07:00

Home affordability took a slight hit this week after the Federal Reserve’s release of its August 10 meeting minutes.

The “Fed Minutes” is a lengthy, detailed recap of a Federal Open Market Committee meeting, not unlike the minutes published after a corporate conference, or condo association gathering. The Federal Reserve publishes its meeting minutes 3 weeks after a FOMC get-together.

The minutes are lengthy, too.

At 6,181 words, August’s Fed Minutes is thick with data about the economy, its current threats, and its deeper strengths. The minutes also recount the conversations that, ultimately, shape our nation’s monetary policy.

It’s for this reason that mortgage rates are rising. Wall Street didn’t see much from the Fed that warranted otherwise.

Among the Fed’s observations from its minutes:

On the economy : The recession was deeper than previously believed
On jobs : Private employment is expanding slowly
On housing : The market was “quite soft” in June

Now, none of this was considered “news”, per se. If anything, investors were expecting for harsher words from the Fed; a bleaker outlook for the economy. And, because they didn’t get it, monies moved to stocks and mortgage bonds lost.

That caused mortgage rates to rise.

The Fed meets 8 times annually. Its next meeting is scheduled for September 21, 2010. Until then, mortgage rates should remain low and home affordability should remain high. There will be ups-and-downs from day-to-day, but overall, the market is favorable.

Case-Shiller Posts 16th Straight Month Of Home Price Improvement

2010-09-01T06:56:00.001-07:00

According to the Standard & Poors Case-Shiller Index, home values rose 5 percent in June versus the month prior, and 4 percent from a year earlier. It’s the 16th consecutive month in which Case-Shiller reported an increase in home values and the third straight month of outstanding results.

That said, homeowners and home buyers would do well to temper Case-Shiller enthusiasm. The

June figures are issued on 60-day delay and, over the last 60 days, housing data has been lackluster at best.

Existing Home Sales are down 27 percent
New Home Sales are down 12 percent
Homebuilder confidence is down

Stories like these highlight a key weakness of the Case-Shiller Index — it’s out of date as soon as it’s published. Because of this, the Case-Shiller Index relevance to everyday Americans is muted. People don’t buy homes in the “60 days ago” real estate market, after all.

June is ancient real estate history.

However, the Case-Shiller Index does have its place. As the most widely-followed, private-sector housing tracker, the index is used to help make policy decisions and to shape Wall Street’s expectations of the economy. This means that a strong Case-Shiller reading can cause mortgage rates to rise, and a weak Case-Shiller reading can cause rates to fall.

Tuesday, mortgage rates fell.

Mortgage Rates May Be Low, But They’re Tough To Pin Down — Especially This Week

2010-08-31T06:40:00.001-07:00

Mortgage rates are low right now but pinning them down this week could be a challenge. As Labor Day Weekend nears and Wall Streeters take their head-start on the holiday, trading volume will fall, which will cause mortgage rates to get jumpy.

As mortgage rates change, so does the long-term cost of owning a home. Every 1/8 percent adjustment changes a household budget.

Meanwhile, the relationship between “vacation days” and mortgage rate volatility is an interesting one; based more in scarcity than market fundamentals.

Rates tend to get volatile near holidays because of two inter-related facts:

Conforming mortgage rates are based on the price of mortgage-backed bonds
Mortgage-backed bonds can’t trade without a buyer and a seller at a specific price

So, as the week progresses and more traders leave for their respective “extended” 3-day weekends, there’s fewer buyers and sellers left on Wall Street to connect for a trade. As a result, mortgage bond prices move across larger gaps than on a “normal” day which, in turn, translates into faster, larger changes in rates.

This phenomenon can be exaggerated during periods of economic uncertainty — like what we’re in now — and, furthermore, there’s a bevy of important data set for release this week including the FOMC Minutes, inflation data, and August jobs figures.

In other words, rates would have been volatile without the vacation week. The presence of Labor Day just piles on.

Mortgage rates may rise this week, or they may fall. Either way, if you have a chance to lock something favorable and within your budget, consider doing it. Rates are at all-time lows and likely won’t last

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week: August 30, 2010

2010-08-30T08:40:00.000-07:00

Mortgage markets improved last week despite a major mortgage bond sell-off Friday afternoon. Prior to the jump, conforming mortgage rates had cut new, all-time lows by Thursday, only to lose up to 0.250 percent on the last day of the week.

Meanwhile, the same type of news that drove rates lower Monday through Thursday also contributed to rates rising Friday — revised projections for the U.S. economy.

Early in the week, “bad” news piled on which, in turn, lowered expectations for the economy and pushed mortgage rates down:

Existing Home Sales dropped 27% from June
Single-Family New Home Sales dropped 12% from June
Purchases of “big ticket” items plunged

Then, on Friday, two events revised the market’s expectations back higher:

Q2 GDP was revised lower, but not as low as had been expected
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said the economy will keep expanding through the end of the year and into 2011

When Chairman Bernanke talks, markets listen. His comments about the U.S. economy helped fuel that late-Friday surge in mortgage rates last week.

This week, the momentum could continue — depending on the data.

There’s a lot for markets to digest this week including key inflation figures from the government; home value data from Case-Shiller; Fed Minutes from the Federal Reserve; and, the always-important jobs report due Friday.

Since April, mortgage rates have been on a downward trajectory and that may continue this week. Or, it may not. If you own a home and haven’t talked to us about a refinance, now is as good a time as any — rates are at historic lows and could rebound at any time.

Last June, mortgage rates rose 1.125% in 10 days. Under the right circumstances, it could happen again.

Mortgage Rates Make New Lows For The 9th Week In A Row

2010-08-20T06:25:00.000-07:00

Another week, another new low for conforming mortgage rates. In fact, this week marks the 9th time in a row it’s happened.

Mortgage rates are (again) at their lowest levels in history.

The data comes from the Freddie Mac, a government group and major loan securitizer for the U.S. mortgage market. Freddie Mac’s weekly survey is among the most widely-cited reports on mortgage rates and is the data used in home affordability models, among other statistics.

The 30-year fixed rate is averaging 4.42% nationally with an accompanying cost of 0.7 points. 1 point is equal to 1 percent of the loan size. This week’s reported rate is lower by 0.02 percent from last week, and lower by 0.70 percent from one year ago.

On a region-by-region basis, though, “average” 30-year fixed mortgage rates are different.

Northeast : 4.44 with 0.6 points
Southeast : 4.44 with 0.8 points
N. Central : 4.42 with 0.4 points
Southeast : 4.46 with 0.5 points
West : 4.35 with 0.8 points

But this isn’t to say that mortgage pricing is better in, say, California as compared to Florida.

Note that the West Region — with the lowest average rate — has the highest required points.

This is because mortgage rates and mortgage fees move in opposite directions. The type of low-rate/high fee structure common in the West may be right for some home buyers and would-be refinancers, but may not be right for others.

What’s important to remember is that, as a rate-shopper , it’s always your choice on how your loan is structured. Banks offer multiple set-ups — with or without points — to meet every applicant’s budget.

As mortgage rates continue to slide and touch new lows, it’s an excellent opportunity to see what we can do for you. Low rates won’t last forever.

How Much Should You Expect To Pay In Mortgage Closing Costs?

2010-08-19T06:22:00.000-07:00

How much does a mortgage cost? The answer depends on where you live. But no matter which your locale, chances are strong that you’ll pay more for a mortgage in 2010 as compared to 2009.

According to Bankrate.com and its annual Closing Cost Survey, a typical $200,000, purchase mortgage now carries an average $3,741 in closing costs — up nearly 37 percent from last year.

As defined by Bankrate.com, “closing costs” is defined as the sum of two numbers. The first group is labeled “origination charges”, a category that includes such items as underwriting fees, application fees and processing fees. These fees are paid directly to the loan originator’s company at the time of closing.

The second grouping of costs is labeled “third-party fees”. Third-party fees include appraisals, credit reports, settlement fees and title searches — items paid in connection with the loan, but not paid to the lending bank or broker.

It’s unclear why closing costs appear to have escalated into 2010, but Bankrate.com suggest that recently-enacted federal lending laws are a culprit:

The new law requires loan officers to be accountable to a Good Faith Estimate’s accuracy. Bankrate.com’s prior-year surveys may have been “understated”, therefore, because of a lack of accountability.
The cost of federal compliance is high, and banks may be passing on compliance costs to consumers.

To see the complete list of closing costs by state, visit the Bankrate.com website.

Single-Family Housing Starts Fade In July

2010-08-18T07:04:00.000-07:00

Sometimes, you need to look deeper than the headlines to get the news that matters. This basic truth’s latest example comes from the July Housing Starts data, as published by the U.S. Census Bureau.

According to the newspapers, Housing Starts improved last month:

US Housing Starts Make Modest Rebound (FT)
Housing Starts Rise Slightly (MoneyWatch)
Housing Starts Tick Higher In July (MarketWatch)

However, these stories are speaking in terms of all housing starts — not just the single-family ones. This is a major point of difference for home buyers because the most people don’t buy the multi-unit homes and apartment buildings that’s also a part of the Housing Starts data.

The overwhelming majority of buyers buy single-family homes and in July, as in the previous 3 months, the number of single-family housing starts fell.

In fact, single-family housing starts are down by nearly 25 percent since April and are now at their lowest levels since May 2009.

This is a much different message from the headlines above.

It’s not surprising that single-family housing starts are down; builder confidence is down as well and the two metrics tend to trend in the same direction.

Furthermore, building permits for single-family homes fell in July, too.

As a home buyer, the drop in Housing Starts should help reduce housing inventory in the months ahead. This may lead home prices to rise because home values are based on supply and demand. For home sellers, falling starts should help reduce competition for buyers.

Each real estate market is unique and supply levels will vary from ZIP code to ZIP code. For up-to-the-minute inventory levels, make sure to talk with your real estate agent.

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : August 16, 2010

2010-08-16T07:02:00.001-07:00

Mortgage markets worsened last week, putting a pause on the mortgage rate rally that dates to mid-April. Mortgage rates rose last week and home affordability suffered.

The Refi Boom remains in full effect, but rates were not as dazzling during the week as they were the previous week.

It’s somewhat strange that mortgage rates rose last week given the heavy dose of negative-bending news.

The Federal Reserve noted that the economy “has slowed“
New unemployment claims rose to a 6-month high
Retail sales — excluding auto sales — rose less than expected

Mortgage rates often to fall on such news, but last week, they rose. The biggest reason was weak demand on a new 30-year bond issuance from the government. In turn, that weakness spilled over into mortgage bonds, which pushed rates up.

This week, mortgage rates could rise or fall — it depends on how new data influences market sentiment.

Monday : Home builder confidence survey
Tuesday : Housing Starts and Building Permits; Producer Price Index
Thursday : Jobless claims; 2 Fed members make speeches

Keep a close eye on the housing-related data early in the week. It’s widely believed that housing will lead the economy forward so a rebound in home builder confidence, or a jump in building permits, for example, should push rates even higher. Weakness

In the meanwhile, if you haven’t spoken with us about a refinance, consider reaching out this week. Rates are lower than they’ve ever been in history and more people are getting financing than the news would have you believe. You can’t know until you ask so make that call today.

Higher (And Lower) FHA Mortgage Insurance Premiums Start October 4, 2010

2010-08-13T06:32:00.000-07:00

For the second time this year, the FHA is modifying mortgage insurance.

Beginning with FHA case numbers issued on or after October 4, 2010, the FHA is changing its upfront and annual mortgage insurance premium structure.

Under the new terms, assuming a 30-year fixed rate FHA mortgage with at least 5 percent equity:

1) Upfront MIP drops to 1.000% of the amount borrowed from 2.250%

2) Annual MIP increases to 0.850% of the amount borrowed from 0.500%

For homeowners , this switch in MIP decreases the upfront cost of an FHA-insured mortgage, but increases the loan’s long-term costs.

Using a $100,000 mortgage as an example, upfront MIP falls to $1,000 from $2,250; monthly MIP jumps to $70.83 from $41.67. The FHA expects the change will yield an additional $300 million in premiums monthly.

The update is a huge win for the FHA whose reserve funds are self-proclaimed to be “perilously low”. The extra monies should help recapitalize and stabilize the government group.

The FHA is on pace to back 1.7 million loans this year.

For the majority of refinancing FHA homeowners and home buyers, the MIP change is neither good nor bad — the borrowing landscape will just looks a bit different. Yes, loans will cost more to carry each month, but also they’ll be less expensive to procure. It’s a trade-off and you can apply math formulas to solve for the best time to apply FHA.

It may be wise to get your FHA case number before October 4, for example, depending on your time frame in the home and the expected life of the mortgage. Or, it may be better to wait until after October 4 to apply.

If you’re unsure of how the new FHA mortgage premiums will impact your mortgage, be sure to call or email us for help.

NOTE : The FHA originally announced an implementation date of September 7. It was subsequently amended to October 4, 2010.

How Big Is The Foreclosure Market? It Depends On Where You Live, Of Course.

2010-08-12T06:32:00.000-07:00

Foreclosure filings rose 4 percent nationwide last month versus June, according to foreclosure-tracking firm RealtyTrac.com. For the 17th straight month, total filings topped 300,000.

A foreclosure filing is defined as default notice, scheduled auction, or bank repossession.

As with most months, just a handful of states dominated foreclosure activity nationwide.

California : 14.9 percent of all activity
Florida : 11.6 percent of all activity
Arizona : 6.4 percent of all activity
Michigan : 6.2 percent of all activity
Georgia : 6.1 percent of all activity
Texas : 4.9 percent of all activity

Together, these 6 states represent just 30 percent of the overall U.S. population.

The other 44 states (and Washington D.C.) were home to the remaining 49.0%.

Despite this imbalance, though, in all markets, foreclosures and REO are making a profound impact on pricing and product. “Distressed” homes now represent 32 percent of the overall resale market nationwide, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

Buying a foreclosed home can make for a terrific “deal”, but buying in the REO market is decidedly different from buying a non-foreclosed property.

As 3 examples:

Buying bank-owned homes can take 120 days to close.
Foreclosures aren’t always listed for sale publicly. Some inventory is privately-held.
Bank-owned homes are often sold “as is”. There may be defects that render the homes mortgage-ineligible.

If you have an interest in buying REO, consider talking with a real estate agent first. Even the negotiation process is different as compared to a non-distressed sale. It helps to have an experienced professional representing your interests.

A Simple Explanation Of The Federal Reserve Statement (August 10, 2010 Edition)

2010-08-11T06:26:00.000-07:00

Today, in its first meeting in 6 weeks, the Federal Open Market Committee voted 9-to-1 to leave the Fed Funds Rate unchanged.

The Fed Fund Rate remains at a historical low, within a prescribed target range of 0.000-0.250 percent.

In its press release, the FOMC said that, since June, the pace of economic recovery “has slowed”. Household spending is increasing but remains restrained because of high levels of unemployment, falling home values, and restrictive credit.

Yesterday’s statement shows less economic optimism as compared to the prior year’s worth of FOMC statements dating back to June 2009. The Fed is looking for growth to be “more modest in the near-term” than its previous expectations.

Weaknesses aside, the Fed highlighted strengths in the economy, too:

Growth is ongoing on a national level
Inflation levels remain exceedingly low
Business spending is rising

As expected, the Fed re-affirmed its plan to hold the Fed Funds Rate near zero percent “for an extended period”.

There were no surprises in the Fed’s statement so, as a result, the mortgage market’s reaction to the release has been neutral. Mortgage rates were unchanged yesterday afternoon.

The FOMC’s next meeting is scheduled for September 21, 2010.

The Fed Is Meeting Today...Should You Float Or Lock Your Mortgage Rate?

2010-08-10T07:15:00.000-07:00

The Federal Open Market Committee holds a one-day meeting today, its fifth scheduled meeting of the year, and sixth overall since January.

The FOMC is the government’s monetary policy-setting arm and the group’s primary tool for that purpose is an interest rate called the Fed Funds Rate.

The Fed Funds Rate is the prescribed rate at which banks borrow money from each other and, since December 16, 2008, the Federal Reserve has voted to keep the benchmark rate within a target range of 0.000-0.250 percent.

It’s the lowest Fed Funds Rate in history.

Because the Fed Funds Rate is near zero, it’s accommodative of economic growth, spurring businesses and consumers to borrow money on the cheap. This, in turn, fosters economic growth within a U.S. economy that is somewhat tentative and facing headwinds.

The Fed has said over and again that it will hold the Fed Funds Rate “exceptionally low” for as long as conditions warrant. It’s expect that the Fed will reiterate that message in today’s post-meeting press release.

However, just because the Fed Funds Rate won’t be changing today, that doesn’t mean that mortgage rates won’t. Mortgage rates are not set by the Federal Reserve; open markets make mortgage rates.

Mortgage rates tend to be volatile when the Fed is meeting. This is because the Fed’s press release highlights strengths and weaknesses in the economy and, depending on how Wall Street views those remarks, bond markets can undulate and mortgage rates are based on the price of mortgage-backed bonds.

When Ben Bernanke & Co. speak, Wall Street listens.

The Fed’s press release today will be dissected and analyzed. Talk of higher-than-expected inflation, or better-than-expected growth should have a negative effect on rates. Talk of an economic slowdown may help rates to fall.

Either way, we can’t be certain what the Fed will say or do this afternoon so if you’re floating a rate right now and wondering whether the time is right to lock, the safe choice is to lock before 2:15 PM ET today.

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : August 9, 2010

2010-08-09T06:40:00.001-07:00

Mortgage markets improved again last week on softer-than-expected economic data, punctuated by Friday morning’s weak jobs report. Conforming mortgage rates dropped on the news, making new, all-time lows.

Mortgage rates have been on an extended rally dating back to mid-April.

This week, there’s a lot of data and news due for release, the most influential to markets of which is the Federal Open Market Committee’s scheduled policy meeting.

8 times annually, the FOMC meets to discuss the nation’s monetary policy with respect to the current and projected U.S. economic conditions. Sometimes the FOMC takes action on the economy. Other times, it does not.

Either way, Fed meetings are market movers and it’s a gamble to float a mortgage rate ahead of an FOMC get-together.

There’s other’s stories to watch this week, too. Each has the ability to change mortgage rates.

Tuesday : FOMC meeting; Consumer Confidence data
Thursday : Jobless Claims
Friday : Retail Sales; Consumer Price Index

It’s a busy week on Wall Street, to be sure, and rate shoppers would do well to pay attention.

Not only can the FOMC meeting change mortgage rates for every product in every market, but it can also change the outlook for mortgage rates going forward.

Rates are at an all-time low and low rates can’t last forever. We’re in the middle of a Refi Boom today and, soon, the boom will be over.

If you haven’t spoken to us about refinancing your home, or locking a mortgage rate, your best time to make the call is prior to the FOMC’s Tuesday afternoon adjournment at 2:15 PM ET.

Mortgage rates will get jumpy leading up to the meeting, and will most certainly be volatile afterward.

Home Values Within 12.5 Percent Of April 2007 Peak, Nationwide

2010-08-06T06:09:00.000-07:00

According the Federal Home Finance Agency’s Home Price Index, home values are now off just 12.5 percent from their April 2007 peak nationwide. This, after a half-percent monthly increase in prices in May, on average.

Given the state of the market since April 2007, the Home Price Index results are a positive for both the housing market and the economy, but we have to remember that May’s half-point increase is an average, and not specific to a particular area.

In contrast to “national markets”, the real estate markets in which you and I live are decidedly local. It’s a major difference and the distinction renders the Home Price Index somewhat less important.

After all, the HPI doesn’t account for housing activity in individual neighborhoods , nor does it track value across cities.

Instead, it summarizes data in giant chunks of geography.

A quick look at the HPI regional data proves the point. Of the HPI’s 9 tracked regions, only one was within one-tenth of one percent of the national, half-point average. The others varied by as much 1.3 percent.

As a sample:

Mountain Region : + 1.7 percent
New England : + 0.2 percent
South Atlantic : +1.0 percent

And this is on a regional basis. The HPI’s applicability to state, city and neighborhood markets is even less appropriate.

Real estate values cannot be captured in a national survey. For home buyers and seller, what matters is the economics of a block, on a street, in a neighborhood. That type of granularity can’t be tracked in a report like the Home Price Index.

The best place to get that data is from a local real estate agent that knows the market well.

As The Pending Home Sales Index Falls, Home Buyers See Dollar Signs

2010-08-04T06:52:00.001-07:00

The Pending Home Sales Index failed to rebound from a cliff-dive in May, falling by another 3 percent more in June. The index remains at record-low levels.

A “pending home sale” is a home under contract to sell, but not yet closed. The data is culled from local real estate associations and large brokers and accounts for 20 percent of all purchase transactions in a given month nationwide.

The Pending Home Sales Index is a future indicator for the housing market; there is a high correlation between the PHSI and the monthly Existing Home Sales report. This is because of the relatively large sample set used for the PHSI, and because 80 percent of homes under contract close within 60 days, according to the National Association of Realtors.

June’s Pending Home Sales Index is weak by most measures, but if you’re a home buyer , the headlines aren’t so bad. Fewer home sales can push negotiation leverage to the buy-side of a transaction.

Plus, there’s other positives in the market for today’s buyers:

Home supplies are up, which creates competition among sellers
Builder confidence is down, which leads to “free” upgrades and incentives
Mortgage rates are low, which increases cash flow and disposable income

All things equal, the current home buying conditions haven’t been this favorable in years.

The falling figures in June’s Pending Home Sales Index hint that home sales will be down through the rest of the summer and into early-Fall. However, mortgage rates may not and higher mortgage rates can do more to change a monthly payment that a small reduction in home price.

If you’re planning to buy a home later this year, consider moving up your time frame.

It’s an excellent time to be a buyer.

What Does It Mean To Escrow Taxes And Insurance?

2010-08-03T08:24:00.000-07:00

The fiscal responsibility of a homeowner extends beyond the mortgage’s basic principal and interest repayments. Homeowners are also responsible for the real estate taxes on the home and its insurance premiums, too.

Failure to pay taxes can lead to foreclosure, and failure to insure is breach of your mortgage contract.

As a homeowner, you have a choice about how you manage your real estate tax and insurance bills. You can choose to pay them from your own bank account when the bills come due, or you can choose to pay 1/12 of the annual bill to your mortgage servicer each month, and then let your servicer pay the bills on your behalf when they come due.

Not surprisingly, servicers prefer the latter method — it reduces two major lender risks:

That the home’s real estate taxes go delinquent and are sold to a third-party
That the home endures catastrophic damage during a lapse of insurance coverage

In theory, when the servicer is paying the bills, the home’s taxes are always current and the home’s insurance is always paid. This method of managing taxes and insurance is commonly called “escrowing”.

To calculate a home’s monthly escrow payment is simple. Just take the sum of the annual real estate tax bills and insurance bill, then divide it by 12 months in the year.

As a example, a $4,000 annual tax bill with a $800 insurance policy = $4,800 annually = $400 paid into escrow monthly. These monies are collected as part of the regular mortgage payment along with the mortgage’s scheduled principal + interest payment.

Homeowners choosing to escrow tend to get the lowest rate, lowest fee loans. This is because lenders often charge a premium to “waive escrow” (i.e. pay their own taxes and insurance).

Escrow waiver fees vary between banks, but can range up to half-percent of the amount borrowed. The larger the loan, the stiffer the penalty in dollar terms.

Choosing to waive escrow can also raise your mortgage rate by up to 0.250 percent.

If you’re unsure whether escrowing is right for you, give us a call. There’s good reason to go either route depending on your profile

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : August 2, 2010

2010-08-02T06:48:00.000-07:00

Mortgage markets improved last week, pushing mortgage rates lower for the 6th time in seven weeks.

Since April, rates have been on a downward path, spurring refinances in most markets and sparking the start of a Refi Boom.

Last week, 3 key stories played a role in falling rates:

Demand was strong for U.S. government debt
Emerging concerns of a Japan-style deflation in the U.S.
Personal Spending since late-2007 was shown to be less than previously thought

Of the three, it’s the measured drop in Personal Spending for which rate shoppers and home buyers should watch. Drops in spending slow down the economy which, in turn, tends to pull mortgage rates lower.

Long-term, deflation could be a drag on rates, too. For now, though, it’s just a conversation among academics and economists.

This week, mortgage rates could move up or down — a lot hinges on the results on July’s Non-Farm Payrolls report.

More commonly called “the jobs report”, Non-Farm Payrolls hits the wires Friday at 8:30 AM ET. Markets are expecting a 75,000 net loss of jobs last month. If the actual number is higher, mortgage rates should rise. If the actual number is lower, mortgage rates should fall.

With the jobs numbers not due until Friday morning, expect choppy trading through Thursday’s market close. There’s a handful of economic data set for release including Personal Consumption Expenditures (Tuesday), Pending Home Sales (Tuesday) and Jobless Claims (Thursday). Each has the potential to move mortgage rates.

The Refi Boom is ongoing but when it ends, it will end in a hurry. If you’ve been thinking about a refinance, contact us today about your options sooner rather than later.

30-Year Mortgage Rates Make New Lows, But Look Ready To Spike

2010-07-30T06:52:00.000-07:00

No doubt you’ve heard that mortgage rates are low. They’re lower than they’ve ever been in history. The news is everywhere.

Just check out some of these headlines from the last 24 hours:

Mortgage rates set new lows for the 6th straight week (Reuters)
Mortgage rates fall again; 30-year fixed at 4.54% (Wall Street Journal)
Mortgage rates hit another low : 4.54% (NPR)

Fixed mortgage rates are now down more than 1/2 percent from the start of the year, and 3/4 percent from just 1 year ago. The drop has dramatically improved home affordability for home buyers while creating refinance opportunities for existing homeowners.

From a payment perspective, a conforming, 30-year fixed rate mortgage is now cheaper by $41.94 per month per $100,000 borrowed versus July 2009.

A homeowner with a $300,000 mortgage, therefore, is saving $45,295.20 over 30 years.

Low mortgage rates rarely last long and rates appear to have troughed. After a big downhill between April and July, they’re now flat. This could mean rates have finished falling, or that they’re gearing up for another drop lower. Either way, if you haven’t talked to your real estate agent about home affordability, or us about refinancing, it may be time to make that call.

If today’s market marks the end of low rates, rates are expected to rise quickly.

Falling Consumer Confidence Helps Drag Mortgage Rates Lower. . .For Now

2010-07-29T11:15:00.000-07:00

For the second consecutive month, U.S. consumer confidence is plunging. July’s official reading is its lowest since July of last year and the figures run in stark contrast to just two months ago, when the index touched a multi-year high.

According to The Conference Board, July’s figures are reflective of a more pessimistic consumer; one concerned about “business conditions and the labor market”.

Falling confidence numbers are presumed to be poor for the economy. For homeowner and home buyers , however, they can create opportunity. Low confidence can influence the mortgage market in a positive manner, driving mortgage rates down.

Mortgage rates are already at their lowest levels of all-time.

The link between consumer confidence and everyday mortgage rates roots in consumer spending.

Consumer spending accounts for close to 70% of the overall U.S. economy so, the thought goes that, a less confident consumer is less likely to spend money, thereby retarding economic growth. This harms the stock markets and drives cash to bonds, including mortgage-backed bonds.

More bond demand leads bond prices to rise which, in turn, pushes mortgage rates lower.

The other side of lagging confidence is that Americans may be less likely to take new financial risks when they’re feeling unsure, including buying a new home. This can then drag on the housing market, negatively impacting home prices.

Falling home values can help buyers, harm sellers, and stymie would-be refinancers.

It’s tough to predict how consumer confidence data will work its way through the economy, but in the near-term, it appears to be helping mortgage rates stay low. If you’re floating a mortgage rate with your lender, or contemplating a refinance, the time may be right to lock in a rate.

Low rates can’t last forever.

Case-Shiller Shows Home Price Improvement In 95% Of Cities

2010-07-28T06:50:00.000-07:00

Standard & Poors released its Case-Shiller Index Tuesday. On a seasonally-adjusted basis, between April and May 2010, home prices rose in 19 of Case-Shiller’s 20 tracked markets. It’s the second straight month of strong Case-Shiller findings.

Also, May’s numbers are a mirror-image of February’s. In February, 19 of 20 markets lost value.

In its press release, the Case-Shiller staff resisted calling May’s data proof of a housing recovery, noting that home values remain flat as compared to October of last year. However, there are some noteworthy numbers in the Case-Shiller report.

13 of the 20 tracked cities are showing home price improvement year-over-year
Foreclosure posterchlld San Diego has now shown 13 straight months of improvement
San Diego, San Francisco and Minneapolis are showing double-digit annual growth

These are all good signs for the housing market, but the Case-Shiller Index is not without its flaws. Most notably, the data is limited to just 20 cities nationwide — and they’re not even the 20 largest ones.

Cities like Houston, Philadelphia, and San Jose are excluded from Case-Shiller, while cities like Tampa (#54) are not.

Another Case-Shiller flaw is that it reports on a 2-month delay.

Therefore, today is several days from the start of August but we’re now reflecting on data from May. Given the speed at which the real estate market can change, May’s data is almost ancient.

Today’s values may be higher or lower than what Case-Shiller reports.

For home buyers, reports like the Case-Shiller Index may not be useful in making a “Buy or Not Buy” decision, but can aid in watching longer-term trends in housing. For real-time data, talk to a real estate agent with access to local figures instead.

New Homes Sales Gain in June, But Gains Are Relative

2010-07-27T06:34:00.000-07:00

After a down month in May, the sales of newly-built homes appears back on track.

As published by the Census Bureau, June’s New Home Sales report showed:

A 24 percent sales volume increase from the month prior
A 2-month drop in the supply of newly-built home

There are now just 210,000 new homes for sale nationwide.

June’s data is a major improvement over May, but it’s possible that the true “new home market” may be softer than the statistics suggest. This is for several reasons.

First, we’re comparing June’s sales data to the worst month in New Home Sales history.

In May, sales of new homes totaled just 267,000 units nationwide. That’s one-quarter fewer sales than in the previous worst month in New Home Sales history. May’s sales levels were awful by any measure but June’s improvement to 330,000 units remains second-worst sales levels ever posted.

Second, although much improved, June’s new home supply of 7.6 months is elevated versus the historical norm near 6.0 months. The last year has averaged 7.7 months.

For buyers of new homes , this combination of low sales volume and higher-than-normal inventory may be a positive. It’s the main reason why homebuilder confidence is reeling and the downturn has opened some doors for big discounts and deals. Free upgrades and closing cost credits can make a well-priced home even more attractive.

Plus, with mortgage rates at all-time lows and expected to rise, home affordability is may never be better.

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : July 26, 2010

2010-07-26T07:11:00.000-07:00

Mortgage markets worsened last week for the first time in 6 weeks last week. Investors were pleased with corporate earnings reports and the European bank stress tests results.

Stocks gained on the news, and bonds lost.

Mortgage rates rose last week, but only slightly. Rates are still hovering near their lowest levels of all-time.

Of the bigger stories last week was Existing Home Sales. As reported by the National Association of Realtors®, sales volume was down in June and home supplies were up. But figures were a bit better than expected, giving some hope for housing.

Notably, the number of move-up buyers outnumbers first-timers and the national median home price rose, suggesting that mid-to-upper home prices are getting some support.

This week, the market gets additional two pieces of housing data to add to the mix:

New Homes Sales (Monday)
Case-Shiller Index (Tuesday)

Both will have an impact on mortgage rates. In general, better-than-expected data should cause rates to rise ; worse-than-expected data should cause rates to fall.

Also this week, there’s two consumer confidence reports, the Fed’s Beige Book, and late-in-the-week inflationary data. Mortgage markets should remain volatile with so much news headed down the pipe.

It’s too soon to declare the current 3-month rally over, but it’s been 3 weeks since rates dipped. This can be a signal that mortgage rates have finally bottomed and that it’s time to lock your rate.

If you’re floating a mortgage rate, or thinking about a refinance, it’s time to get locked in. Rates may drop this week, but then again, maybe they won’t. There’s little sense gambling on a bet as big as a mortgage.

Housing Starts Ease 0.7 Percent In June — 7x Better Than The Headline Data

2010-07-21T07:02:00.000-07:00

Single-family Housing Starts eased lower last month, falling by 0.7 percent from May, or 3,000 units nationwide.

A “housing start” is a home on which construction has started.

June’s Housing Starts data is somewhat soft and may partially explain why home builder confidence dropped to its lowest level since April 2009, but for buyers and sellers , the Housing Starts report is not nearly as bad as headlines say.

This is because when the press reports on Housing Starts, it doesn’t single out single-family homes. The press lumps every type of home into a single, giant reading. As a result, news outlets are reporting Housing Starts down 5 percent — a somewhat misleading figure.

The 5 percent figure is actually a combination of 3 separate housing types:

Single-Family Housing Starts
Multi-Unit Housing Starts (2-4 Units)
Apartment Building Housing Starts (5 or more units)

But, single-family homes are what most Americans purchase. This is why the single-family starts data is more relevant than the combined figure commonly reported by the press. 2-4 units and apartment buildings are a different realm of buyer.

That said, though, we can’t even be sure that June’s Single-Family Housing Starts report is accurate. As noted in the Department of Commerce’s press release, the data’s margin of error is 10.7 percent which means the reported results are of “no confidence”.

In other words, there is no statistical evidence to prove the actual change was different from zero.

If Housing Starts did, in fact, drop in June, it will help to reduce the housing inventory, which will provide support for local home values. For home sellers, this could be good news. Fewer homes for sale means less competition for buyers.

Sagging Homebuilder Confidence Opens The Door For Good Deals

2010-07-20T07:11:00.001-07:00

Builder confidence in the housing market slipped this month, according to the National Association of Homebuilders’ monthly Housing Market Index.

The Housing Market Index is actually a weighted composite of 3 separate surveys. One measures current single-family sales; one measures projected single-family sales; and one measures traffic of prospective buyers.

All three surveys were down in July:

Single-Family Sales : From 17 (June) to 15 (July)
Single-Family Project : From 22 (June) to 21 (July)
Buyer Foot Traffic : From 13 (June) to 10 (July)

The HMI’s July reading of 14 puts confidence at its lowest point since April 2009.

For home buyers , a drop in builder confidence could create an opportunity for negotiation.

Remember, it wasn’t too long ago that most builders were flush with home inventory, unable to find willing buyers. To help move product at that time, builders dropped prices and offered incentives including free upgrades. If confidence continues to sag going forward, home purchase deals of that nature may return — especially as the foreclosure market gets larger.

See, in the past, builders’ main competition for buyers were the existing home sellers. Today, builders compete with the existing home sellers and the banks with REO.

It’s a terrific time to be a home buyer, in other words — sellers are fighting for you. It’s no wonder sellers have little leverage anymore. Couple that with all-time low mortgage rates and affordability for homes is at an all-time high.

If you’re planning to buy a home later this year, you may want to consider moving up your time frame. The market looks ripe for good deals this summer.

The Fed’s June Minutes Keep Mortgage Rates In Rally-Mode

2010-07-16T06:32:00.001-07:00

According to Freddie Mac, mortgage rates made new all-time lows this week and the good news is that rates look poised to fall even more.

Since the Federal Reserve’s release of its June 2010 meeting minutes Wednesday, mortgage rates are dipping even more and one of the main reasons why is because of some choice Fed words.

If you’ve never seen a Fed Minutes release, it reads academic. The document is page after page of stats, facts and figures about the U.S. economy, accompanied by an in-depth recap of the intra-Fed member debates that shape the nation’s monetary policy.

At 7,333 words, the June Fed Minutes is the unabridged version of the more well-known, post-meeting press release. The corresponding press release was just 360 words.

As it turns out, Wall Street didn’t like what it read in the minutes. Specifically:

The Fed expects below normal growth through 2012
The Fed’s outlook for employment has dipped
Credit conditions are easing only slowly

Furthermore, the Fed said its action may be needed if the economy were “to worsen appreciably”.

Overall, the economic optimism the Fed displayed earlier this year appears to be waning. The economy is moving forward — just not as quickly as expected. That should bode well for mortgage rates and home shopping.

Mortgage rates were down Wednesday afternoon and Thursday and remain historically low. All it would take to reverse rates, however, is a run of positive news on jobs, growth, and consumer spending. Therefore, if you know you need to lock a mortgage rate in the near-term, it may be a
good time to make the call.

Lock your mortgage rate and move on. Call us today! 831-438-5626

Foreclosure Activity Slows Again In June 2010

2010-07-15T06:26:00.000-07:00

313,841 foreclosure filings were made in June, according to foreclosure-tracking firm RealtyTrac. The figure represents a 3 percent drop from May and 7 percent drop from June of last year. However, foreclosure filings remain relatively high nationwide.

June marks the 16th straight month the filings topped 300,000. 1 in every 411 U.S. homes received some form of notice last month with foreclosure density varying wildly from state-to-state.

Like everything else in real estate, it seems, foreclosures are a local phenomenon.

The states with the highest foreclosures per capita were:

Nevada : 1 foreclosure filing per 88 homes
Florida : 1 foreclosure filing per 171 homes
Arizona : 1 foreclosure filing per 189 homes

The states with the lowest foreclosures per capita were:

Vermont : 1 foreclosure filing per 26,051 homes
West Virgina : 1 foreclosure filing per 8,058 homes
South Dakota : 1 foreclosure filing per 6,528 homes

Overall, 40 states beat the national Foreclosure Per Capita average and 10 states fell below. The sheer volume of REO, though, is creating interesting buying opportunities for first-timer buyers, move-up buyers, and real estate investors.

Homes bought from banks are usually less expensive than non-foreclosure homes. This is one of the major reasons why distressed sales account for roughly 30 percent of all home resales. Less expensive, though, doesn’t always mean “cheaper”. Foreclosed homes are often sold as-is and may be defective or otherwise uninhabitable.

Making repairs to get these homes into “living condition” can be costly.

Therefore, if you’re buying a foreclosed home, make sure you know what you’re buying before you make your bid. Have a certified professional inspect the home to check for damage, and consider enlisting the help of a real estate agent to assist with negotiations and management of the contract.

The process of buying a foreclosed home is different from buying a typical resale. Make sure you do your homework.

Mandatory Loan Fees Keep Borrowers From Getting Their Absolute Lowest Rate

2010-07-14T07:03:00.000-07:00

Conforming mortgage rates may be posting all-time lows this week, but that doesn’t mean you’ll be eligible for them. You may have already called a mortgage broker and found this out the hard way.

It’s because of a federally-mandated mortgage-pricing scheme known as “loan-level pricing adjustments”.

In effect since April 2009, loan-level pricing adjustments are changes to a loan’s base rate and/or fee structure based on that loan’s inherent risk to Wall Street. It’s similar to auto insurance pricing adjustment in that a sports car, all things equal, will cost more to insure than a comparably-priced minivan.

More risk, more cost.

In mortgage lending, loan risk can be loosely grouped into 5 categories. Mortgage applications featuring any of the five traits are subject to price adjustments:

Credit Score (i.e. the borrower’s FICO is below 740)
Property Type (i.e. the subject property is a multi-unit home)
Occupancy (i.e. the subject property is an investment home)
Structure (i.e. there is a subordinate/junior lien on title)
Equity (i.e. mortgage insurance is required by the lender)

Furthermore, loan-level pricing adjustments are cumulative.

A 3-unit investment home will face larger adjustments than an owner-occupied 3-unit home, for example. It’s these adjustments that explain why you may not be eligible for the rates you see advertised online and in the newspapers — your particular loan may be subject to this risk-based pricing that raises your mortgage rate and closing costs.

The government’s loan-level pricing adjustment schedule is public information. See what your lender and how your loan quote is made at the Fannie Mae website. Or, if you find the charts confusing, just call or email us for help with interpretation.

Should You Refinance Your ARM, Or Let It Adjust Lower?

2010-07-13T06:54:00.001-07:00

If your adjustable rate mortgage is due to adjust this year, don’t go rushing to replace it just yet. Your soon-to-adjust mortgage rate may actually go lower. It’s related to the math behind the ARM.

Conventional, adjustable-rate mortgages share a common life cycle:

There’s a “starter period” in which the interest rate remains fixed
There’s an initial adjustment period after the starter period called the “first adjustment”
There’s a subsequent annual adjustment until the loan’s term expires — usually at Year 30

The starter period will vary from 1 to 10 years, but at the point of first adjustment, conventional ARMs become the same. A homeowner’s new, adjusted mortgage rate is determined by the sum of some constant, and a variable. The constant is most often 2.25% and the variable is most often the 12-month LIBOR.

As a formula, the math looks like this:

(Adjusted Mortgage Rates) = (12-Month LIBOR) + (2.250 Percent)

LIBOR is an acronym standing for London Interbank Offered Rate. It’s the rate at which banks borrow money from each other and, lately, LIBOR has been low. As a result, adjusting mortgage rates have been low, too.

Last year, 5-year ARMs were adjusting to 6 percent or higher. Today, they’re adjusting to 3.375%.

Based on the math, it may be wise to just let your ARM adjust this year. Or, depending on how long you plan to stay in your home, consider a refinance to a new ARM. Starter rates on today’s adjustable rate mortgages are exceptionally low , as are the rates for fixed rate loans.

Either way, talk to us about making a plan. With mortgage rates as low as they’ve ever been in history, homeowners have some interesting options. Just don’t wait too long. LIBOR — and mortgage rates in general — are known to change quickly.

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : July 11, 2010

2010-07-12T07:17:00.000-07:00

Mortgage markets improved again last week — if only barely — throughout a holiday-shortened week devoid of “major” data and market conviction.

Up-and-down trading characterized the week which ended with mortgage rates slightly lower versus the week prior.

Mortgage rates have fallen in 4 consecutive weeks and are on an extended rally that dates back to mid-April.

This week, however, data returns and rates could reverse.

Especially with inflation numbers are in play.

Inflation is the enemy of mortgage rates.

Inflation is bad for mortgage rates because mortgage rates based on the price of mortgage-backed bonds. When inflation pressures mount, the demand for mortgage-backed bonds wanes and that pushes bond prices down which, in turn, pushed bond yields (i.e. rates) up.

There’s three pieces of inflation-related news this week.

The first inflation-related story is the Federal Reserve’s Wednesday release of the minutes from its last meeting. Now, when the Fed adjourned June 23, it said “underlying inflation has trended lower“. However, there was more to the conversation that what the FOMC released in its post-meeting statement.

Markets will be looking for clues.

Then, Thursday, the Producer Price Index is released. The Producer Price Index is a measure of business operating costs. When PPI is increasing, it means that “doing business” is more expensive — an inflationary situation. It’s inflationary because higher business costs are often absorbed by consumers in the form of higher prices for goods and services.

A rising PPI is usually bad for mortgage rates.

And lastly, Friday, the Consumer Price Index is released. The CPI measures the average American’s “cost of living”. Like PPI, when the Consumer Price Index is rising, mortgage rates tend to follow.

Other releases of import this week include Retail Sales and two consumer confidence surveys.

Last week, mortgage rates again made new all-time lows. If you haven’t checked with us about the possibility of a refinance, make that call this week. Mortgage rates can stay low for a long time, but they can’t stay low forever. Lock your rate while you can.

Was The Pending Home Sales Report Really That Bad? It Depends Who You Ask — Buyer Or Seller.

2010-07-02T06:22:00.001-07:00

The Pending Home Sales Index plunged in May 2010, just one month after the expiration of the federal home buyer tax credit program.

The Pending Home Sales Index is now at a record-low level.

A “pending home sale” is an existing home under contract to sell, but not yet closed. According to the National Association of Realtors®, 80 percent of homes under contract close within 60 days.

Because of this timeline, we can expect the summer’s Existing Home Sales to be weak, too. With fewer homes going under contract, fewer homes can close.

On the surface, May’s Pending Home Sales Index looks like terrible news for housing. And, if you’re a seller, it just might be.

But, if you’re a buyer, the story reads differently. Just consider the market conditions.

A broad look at the housing market shows:

Home supplies are rising in most markets
Home sales are falling in most markets
Mortgage rates are at all-time lows

In other words, in most markets, more sellers are competing for fewer buyers, and the “winning” buyers are financing their homes at the lowest rates in history.

It’s an excellent time to be a home buyer.

Case-Shiller Shows Home Price Improvement In 90% Of Cities

2010-06-30T06:30:00.001-07:00

Standard & Poors released its Case-Shiller Index Tuesday. The index is a monthly home valuation report from select cities and among the private sector’s most popular home pricing models.

In reviewing the April Case-Shiller Index and its accompanying analysis, it appears that the housing market’s rebound is gathering momentum.

In the index’s 20 tracked cities:

18 of 20 improved from March to April 2010
Versus April 2009, home prices are up nearly 4 percent
The two “down” cities from April — Miami and New York — are off just 0.5% and 1.0% annually, respectively

Furthermore, as another sign of strength, San Diego, a city in which homeowners have lost a lot of equity since 2007, has now shown 12 straight months of home price improvement.

However, the Case-Shiller Index must be kept in context. It’s far from perfect.

For one, the index reports on a 60-day delay; it’s only now showing data from the end of April, when the federal homebuyer tax credit was expiring. Home sales have been weak since then it’s been reported.

And second, the Case-Shiller Index is limited to just 20 cities nationwide. Therefore, the index doesn’t consider every home sale in every American city — it only considers a select few. Many more U.S. homes are excluded from the Case-Shiller Index than are included.

But, despite its flaws, the Case-Shiller Index remains important with respect to economic analysis. Much like the government’s Home Price Index, Case-Shiller helps to identify broader trends in housing that shape government and monetary policy.

The 1 Force That Can Really Change A Mortgage Rate

2010-06-29T11:51:00.001-07:00

All day, every day, conforming and FHA mortgage rates are in flux. Rates move in response to hundreds of factors which exact varying levels of influence.

Among the biggest influences on mortgage rates is inflation.

When inflation is unexpectedly high, mortgage rates tend to rise quickly. Conversely, when inflation is unexpectedly low, rates tend to fall quickly.

But what is inflation?

By definition, inflation is when a currency loses its value; when what used to cost $1.00 now costs $1.10.

As consumers, we recognize inflation by the items we buy on a daily basis becoming more expensive. However, it’s not that goods are more expensive — it’s that the dollars we’re using to buy them have become worth less.

With respect to mortgage rates, this is a big deal because mortgage rates are directly related to the price of a special type of bond called a mortgage-backed bond.

On Wall Street, mortgage-backed bonds are priced, bought, and sold in U.S. dollars so as inflation renders those dollars less valuable, so it does to mortgage-backed bonds as well. It’s a chain reaction by which mortgage bonds lose value, leading investors sell them, causing bond prices to fall on the excess supply.

And, because mortgage rates move opposite of bond prices, as inflation takes hold, mortgage rates rise.

Lately, inflation has been exceptionally low. The Federal Reserve acknowledged as much in its last statement to the markets, and available data backs that position. This, after predictions that inflation would be “runaway” in 2010.

The Cost of Living is up just modestly this year and it’s helping mortgage rates stay low. And, so long as it lasts, the cost of owning a home will remain relatively inexpensive.

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : June 28, 2010

2010-06-28T08:02:00.000-07:00

Mortgage markets improved last week in response to mostly negative data about the U.S. economy, and the Federal Reserve’s acknowledgement that Eurozone financial ills could cross the Atlantic.

Conforming and FHA mortgage rates fell last week, extending a rate rally that dates to early-April. Mortgage rates have fallen to several, new, all-time lows during this period and last week was no different.

The best rates of last week hit Thursday morning.

This week, mortgage rates should be volatile, and may rise, too.

There’s a bevy of data due for release, and market volume will be light with the long weekend looming.

Monday, the Personal Consumptions Expenditures Price Index is published. More commonly known as “PCE”, the index is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. When inflation is running higher than expected, mortgage rates tend to rise.

Conversely, when inflation is running lower than expected, mortgage rates tend to fall.

Tuesday, the Case-Shiller Index will be released for April’s home prices, along with two consumer confidence reports. As with PCE, strength tends to lead mortgage rates higher and weakness draws them lower.

Thursday, the National Association of REALTORS® releases its Pending Home Sales Index for May and the Department of Labor releases initial and continuing jobless claims number.

Then, Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes June’s jobs report, including the Unemployment Rate. This number is always a market-mover, but with the long vacation weekend looming, it’s expected that Friday’s volume will be light on Wall Street, creating extra volatility.

Mortgage rates may be erratic, in other words.

If you’ve been shopping for mortgages, you’ve been rewarded with falling rates. However, will rates cutting new lows almost weekly and expected to reverse soon, it may be a good time to lock up your savings.

Talk to us ASAP about locking in your rate.

Buyers Take The May 2010 New Home Sales Data All The Way To The Bank

2010-06-25T06:23:00.001-07:00

One month after the federal homebuyer tax credit’s official expiration, the New Home Sales report turned in its worst showing ever.

In May 2010, for the first time in 11 months, the inventory of unsold new homes crossed the 8-month marker, posting an 8.5 month supply overall.

Additionally, new homes sales volume fell to 300,000 units nationwide — a drop of 32% and its lowest level since the Commerce Department started tracking data in 1963.

Now, universally, the press is referring to the May New Home Sales report as “poor“. A closer look, however, shows that may not be the case.

For one, we have to keep New Home Sales in perspective as a percentage of overall home sales. Yes, there were just 300,000 new homes sold in May, but there were also 5.66 million “existing” homes sold.

New Home Sales, therefore, accounted for just 5 percent of the total housing market — a very small percentage.

Another reason why the weak New Home Sales data isn’t so awful is that, when New Home Sales stall, it actually benefits home buyers. Excess supply puts a strain on sellers which, in turn, gives buyers a tremendous amount of leverage in negotiation.

When home inventories are high, builders are more apt to appease their customers in hopes of making a sale. For home buyers, this can result in buying a better product at a lower price.
Especially with builder confidence plummeting.

Since February 2009, housing has shown steady gains. There’s been both peaks and valleys across units, inventories, and prices, but overall, the market is improving. May’s New Home Sales data shows how now may an opportune time to “buy new”.

A Simple Explanation Of The Federal Reserve Statement (June 23, 2010 Edition)

2010-06-24T11:29:00.000-07:00

Yesterday, in its first meeting in 5 weeks, the Federal Open Market Committee voted 9-to-1 to leave the Fed Funds Rate unchanged.

The Fed Fund Rate remains within its target range of 0.000-0.250 percent.

In its press release, the FOMC said that, since April, “the economic recovery is proceeding” and that the jobs market “is improving gradually”. Business spending “has risen significantly”, too, with the exception of commercial real estate.

Today’s statement is the 8th straight press release in which the Fed shows optimism for the U.S. economy, dating back to June 2009. Since that time, the Fed has terminated all of the programs it created to support the economy through the economic crisis.

The recession is widely believed to be over.

And, although the Fed’s statement acknowledged economic growth, it did highlight lingering threats, too.

Employers are still reluctant to hire new workers
European debt concerns could spill-over to the U.S.
Bank lending is contracting

Also, as expected, the Fed re-affirmed its plan to hold the Fed Funds Rate near zero percent “for an extended period”, citing that “inflation has trended lower” recently.

Mortgage market reaction has been positive thus far. Mortgage rates in are slightly improved post-FOMC.

The FOMC’s next scheduled meeting is August 10, 2010.

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : June 14, 2010

2010-06-14T06:41:00.000-07:00

Mortgage markets posted four good days last week and one awful one. Unfortunately for rate shoppers , that one bad day outweighed the gains of the other four and mortgage rates worsened on the week overall.

Despite re-touching all-time lows on Tuesday and Wednesday, Conforming and FHA mortgage rates moved higher on the week.

There wasn't much domestic data on which for mortgage markets to move so rates took their cues from global economic activity. Strong data from Japan and China, plus an improving outlook from the Eurozone, sparked optimism among Wall Street investors. Cash poured into the stock market and it happened at the expense of bonds -- including the mortgage-backed ones.

It's the primary reasons rates rose and not even the worst Retail Sales report in 8 months could undue the damage.

Often, weak Retail Sales data causes mortgage rates to fall. Last week, however, that wasn't the case.

This week, there's cause for rates to rise again with Wednesday emerging as a "data day".

First, at 8:30 AM ET, the government releases two key housing statistics and one major gauge for inflation -- Housing Starts, Building Permits and Producer Price Index, respectively.

Strength in any or all three should lead mortgage rates higher.

Then, at 5:45 PM ET, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke makes a public speech and anytime Bernanke speaks, mortgage rates can move.

Mortgage rates remain unnaturally low and a lot of Americans have taken advantage already. If you're a homeowner and you've wondered whether or not a refinance makes sense, talk to us right away. Low rates like this can't last forever so lock one in while you can.

FHA Mortgage Insurance Premiums Approved To Triple In Cost

2010-06-11T09:11:00.000-07:00

Starting sometime later this year, the monthly cost to carry an FHA-insured mortgage is expected to rise.

In a near-unanimous vote, the House of Representatives gave the FHA power to raise the monthly mortgage insurance premiums it charges to its borrowers.

Currently, monthly mortgage insurance premiums are 0.55% of the unpaid loan balance, divided by 12. The recently approved Federal Housing Administration Reform Act provides for an increase in monthly premium of up to 1.55 percent, among other details of the bill.

Despite the ability to charge 1.55 percent, FHA officials say an increase to 0.90 percent would be sufficient to self-insure its loans.

In everyday terms, assuming a $200,000 mortgage, the math to a homeowner looks as follows:

Current Premium (0.55%) : $91.67 monthly mortgage insurance premium
Expected Increase (0.90%) : $150.00 monthly mortgage insurance premium
Maximum Increase (1.55%) : $258.33 monthly mortgage insurance premium

A increase in monthly mortgage insurance premiums will reduce home affordability and strain household budgets.

The news isn't all terrible, however.

Because higher monthly insurance premiums are expected to pad the FHA coffers sufficiently, the FHA has said it plans to reduce its upfront mortgage insurance premium paid at closing from 2.25 percent down to 1.000 percent.

On the same $200,000 mortgage, a move like that would reduces closing costs by $2,500.

The bill awaits companion legislation in Senate and final approval into law, but considering the House's lopsided vote Thursday, it could happen rather quickly. If you're planning to buy or refinance a home using an FHA mortgage, you may find that waiting to take the next step could be a costly one, long-term.

The FHA insured close to a quarter of all mortgages made in the first three months of 2010.

Fannie Mae's Loan Quality Initiative : Repulling Your Credit Just Before Closing

2010-06-08T06:34:00.000-07:00

A new loan quality initiative from Fannie Mae is making it harder for home buyers and refinancing homeowners everywhere to close on a mortgage.

Beginning June 1, 2010, with all new applications, Fannie Mae wants lenders to verify that borrowers have not taken on new debt during the underwriting phase of the mortgage.

If new debts are found, the mortgage is subject to a re-underwrite and a possible turndown.

For Fannie Mae, the goal is to reduce the number of loans that go bad because of new, non-disclosed debt. Lenders have the freedom to verify in whatever manner they wish, but in most cases, the verification process will amount to a credit re-pull made just prior to closing.

The underwriters will be looking for 3 things in particular -- even after your loan is approved.

First, your updated credit report will show your current credit card bills and minimum monthly payments. Those numbers will replace your original numbers made at the time of application. If the debts exceed a certain threshold, your loan will be denied.

Second, underwriters will be looking at your updated credit score. If your FICO has dropped below minimum lending standards, your loan will be denied. Or, you may be subject to a new loan-level pricing adjustment.

Loan level pricing adjustments are mandatory loan fee based on your credit score.

And, lastly, underwriters will be looking at your credit report's Credit Inquiry section. The goal is to see if you've been applying for credit elsewhere. Underwriters can use this information at their discretion.

Fannie Mae's Loan Quality Initiative is just one more way that the government-backed group is trying to improve its loan pools. Unfortunately, it'll mean more turndowns for mortgage applicants.

Therefore, take extra care of your credit between the time of application and the time of closing. Don't buy new cars, don't buy new appliances, and -- most definitely -- don't open new credit cards. Be extra safe with your credit because a mortgage application that's supposedly cleared-to-close can be revoked at the eleventh hour.

When in doubt, talk to us about what may or may not trigger the Loan Quality Initiative. Your loan approval is at stake.

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : June 7, 2010

2010-06-07T08:18:00.001-07:00

Rate shoppers caught another break last week as mortgage markets improved on weak jobs data.

The May Non-Farm Payrolls report fell well short of expectations while ongoing jobless claims rose. The two combined to cast doubt on the speed of the U.S. economic recovery, hurting stocks and helping bonds.

Conforming and FHA mortgage rates dropped for the fifth time in six weeks and, once again, rates are trolling back near all-time lows.

No doubt you've heard that before -- "mortgage rates at all-time lows". Mortgage rates have dipped to these levels four times in the last 19 months. However, on each occasion, it wasn't long after touching bottom before rates reversed higher.

November 2008 : Roughly 90 minutes
March 2009 : Roughly 6 hours
May 2009 : Roughly 1 day
May 2010 : Roughly 3 hours

This week, rates could stay low for a matters of hours, or days -- we can't really know. Especially with no "major" data due for release. Instead, most of this week's economic news is incidental.

That means that mortgage markets will move based on trader sentiment and "gut feel".

The good news is that the market momentum is currently in the rate shoppers' favor. We entered the weekend with rates falling and they look poised to open Monday no worse.

Here's a look at what's ahead this week:

Monday: Consumer credit, a critical piece of consumer spending
Wednesday : The Beige Book, a regional economic report from the Fed
Thursday : Initial and continuing jobless claims
Friday : Retail Sales and the Consumer Sentiment report

Market sentiment is a strange animal. One minute it can be your friend and, the next, it can be your enemy. Opinions change swiftly on Wall Street and so do mortgage rates.

If you're still not locked in, consider making your move. Rates have a lot farther to rise than they do to fall. You won't want to be on the wrong side of the bet when rates start rising.

May 2010 Jobs Report Gives A Temporary Boost To Home Affordability

2010-06-05T06:25:00.001-07:00

On the first Friday of each month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its Non-Farm Payrolls data from the month prior.

The release is more commonly called "the jobs report" -- a major factor in mortgage rates and monthly payments.

Especially now.

With the recession officially over and growth returning to the U.S. economy, the recovery's next frontier is jobs. As job growth increases, home affordability should take a hit.

Here's why:

As the number of working Americans increases, so should total consumer spending
As consumer spending increases, so should a return to risk-taking on Wall Street
As risk-taking returns to Wall Street, bond markets should start to lose

Mortgage rates, therefore, should rise.

Furthermore, as the jobs market stabilizes and recovers, renters should be more apt to buy their first home, and homeowners should be apt to up-size. More home buyers means more competition for homes and higher home prices typically follow.

Job growth can be trickle-up for housing.

Today, however, the jobs data was not so strong. According to the government, 431,000 jobs were created in May, but of those new jobs, 95.4% represented temporary staffing for the 2010 Census. The number of private-sector jobs created fell well short of expectations and Wall Street is voting with its dollars right now. Mortgage bonds are gaining so, therefore, rates are falling.

The May 2010 jobs report may not reflect well on the economy, but home affordability around the country is improving because of it.

Pending Home Sales Data Shows "Great Deals On Homes" Are Getting Harder To Find

2010-06-03T06:13:00.000-07:00

The Pending Home Sales Index shot higher in April as low mortgage rates and a soon-to-expire federal tax credit spurred home buying across the county.

A "pending home sale" is a home that's under contract to sell but not yet closed.

Region-by-region, April's pending home sales varied versus March's data:

Northeast Region: +29.5%
Midwest Region : +4.1%
South Region : -0.6% (after a +15.9% posting in March)
West Region : +7.5%

On an annual basis, the Pending Home Sales Index is higher by 22 percent.

April marks the third straight month that pending home sales are up and today's buyers should take note. This is because, according to the National Association of Realtors®, 80% of homes under contract close within 60 days.

In other words, May and June's existing home sales data should be similarly strong, causing the real estate market to gently shift in favor of sellers. In fact, already, we're seeing home resales touch multi-year highs while new home supplies fall to multi-year lows.

All of it tends to push home prices higher while simultaneously reducing buyer negotiation leverage. That, coupled with the high probability of higher mortgage rates ahead, means that finding "deals" will get tougher for the average home buyer.

In looking at the housing market data, it appears that the best month in which to have bought a home this year was February. The next best time may be right now.

Talk to your real estate agent if you're planning to buy a home this year. It may be sensible to move up your time frame a few months.

Consumer Confidence Hints At Higher Home Prices And Higher Mortgage Rates, Too

2010-06-02T09:07:00.000-07:00

The Consumer Confidence Index is rising, a potentially double-edged sword for Americans, in general.

According to The Conference Board, economic confidence is as high as it's been since August 2007 -- 4 months before the start of the recession. Americans are optimistic again.

Confidence matters to the economy because as confidence increases, in theory, consumer spending follows. Consumer spending accounts for 70 percent of the U.S. economy.

It's why Wall Street is responsive to confidence data.

When consumer confidence is rising, households start to make big-ticket purchases they may have otherwise put off indefinitely. Maybe it's a replacing old appliances; or, trading in an old automobiles; or, splurging on a vacation.

Rising confidence can also spur real estate sales.

When confidence is rising, a growing family that chose to "make do" in their 3-bedroom, 1.5-bathroom starter home may opt to move-up to a 4-bedroom, 3-bath instead at a slightly higher monthly carrying cost. And there are families in every city in every state making those same decisions.

As a result, the housing market gets a boost -- especially in the mid-to-upper price ranges. Values rise on higher demand for homes.

The downside is that growing confidence tends to push conforming and FHA mortgage rates up.

This is because an expanding economy draws investment dollars away from bonds and into stocks -- including mortgage bonds.

The reduced demand for mortgage-backed bonds leads bond prices to fall and mortgage rates to rise. Sometimes by a little, sometimes by lot.

So, if you're buying a home or thinking of a refinance, rising confidence in the economy may be a signal to act sooner rather than later. Talk to your real estate agent and/or us about next steps and get your plan in place.

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : June 1, 2010

2010-06-01T08:53:00.001-07:00

Mortgage markets worsened last week as concerned of a global debt crisis lessened and stock markets rebounded. The gains in stocks came at the expense of bonds -- including mortgage bonds.

Conforming and FHA mortgage rates rose for the first time in 5 weeks, pulling mortgage pricing off its best levels of the year.
The best mortgage rates of last week were locked Tuesday morning.

This week, mortgage rates may rise even more. In addition to the release of May's jobs report and consumer confidence data, fears of broader economic slowdown appear to be easing.

Day-by-day, the chances of rates rising are real.

On Tuesday, a consumer confidence survey is released.

Consumer confidence is linked to economic growth because 70 percent of the economy is based in consumer spending. In theory, as consumer confidence grows, the economy should, too.

Therefore, a strong reading should push mortgage rates higher.

Then, on Wednesday, Pending Home Sales and Auto Sales data is released for last month. Both items are "big ticket" and, again, reflect on consumer confidence. Strong readings should be rough on rates.

Next, on Thursday, jobless claims data hits the wires along with worker productivity stats.

Normally, these two releases don't carry much weight, but with the jobs market in focus this year, markets will be watching for clues about Friday's big report -- the May Non-Farm Payrolls.

Anything can happen when the jobs report is released.

In April, an estimated 290,000 jobs were created and, in May, economists think more than a half-million people re-entered the workforce. This is good for the economy, of course, but can drag on mortgage rates. If job growth even comes close to the 500,000 marker, mortgage rates could zoom higher.

Mortgage rates moved higher last week but are still very low. If you've been thinking about refinancing your mortgage, you probably shouldn't put it off much longer. Talk to us today -- the longer you wait, the more that rates can rise.

The Supply Of New Homes For Sale Just Dropped Off A Cliff

2010-05-28T06:44:00.000-07:00

The supply of newly-built homes for sales plummeted in April, a positive indicator for the housing market as we head into the summer months.

It's no wonder that homebuilders are breaking new ground at the fastest clip in 2 years.

At the current sales pace, the nation's complete supply of new homes would be sold in just 5 month's time. That's more than double the pace of a year ago.

Also, as more good news, in terms of total housing units, the government reports that New Home Sales topped one half-million homes sold for the first time since May 2008.

It's a similar spike as within the Existing Home Sales data released earlier this week.

But before we declare the housing market "repaired in full", we have to consider a few of the reasons why home sales are charting so strongly.

The first reason is the federal homebuyer tax credit's April 30 expiration. In order to claim up to $8,000 in tax credits, home buyers must have been in mutual contract for a property before May 1. There is no doubt this contributed to a run-up in sales, especially among first-time home buyers.

The second reason is that mortgage rates have remained exceptionally low, defying expert predictions. Low rates don't sell homes, but they do make monthly payments easier to manage for households torn between renting or buying.

And, lastly, March and April's new home sales may have been buoyed by aggressive discounting on behalf of homebuilders. As compared to February 2010, April's average new home sale price was lower by 13 percent. That's a sharp drop in a short period of time.

For now, though, homes are selling, supplies are dropping, and buyer interest is high. It's no wonder builder confidence is soaring.

Home Price Index Rises 0.3% in March 2010

2010-05-26T06:56:00.001-07:00

Home values rose in March, according to the Federal Home Finance Agency's most recent Home Price Index. Values were reported higher by 0.3 percent, on average, from February.

We use the phrase "on average" because the Home Price Index is broad-reaching, national housing statistic. It ignores the dynamics of neighborhood real estate markets as well as citywide markets , too.

Instead, the Home Price Index focuses on state and regional statistics.

For example, in March 2010 as compared to February:

Values in the East South Central region rose 2.5%
Values in the Mountain states rose 1.1%
Values in the Middle Atlantic states fell 1.0%

Of course, none of this data is especially helpful for today's home buyers and sellers.

Real estate is a local phenomenon that can't be summarized by state or region. What matters most to buyers and sellers is the economics of a neighborhood and that level of granularity can't be served up by a national housing report like the Home Price Index.

The Home Price Index data is additionally unhelpful to buyers and sellers in that it reports on a 2-month delay.

In other words, Home Price Index is not even a fair reflection of today's market -- it highlights the real estate market as it existed 60 days ago.

So why is the Home Price Index even published? Because government, business and banks rely on the reports. As a national indicator, the Home Price Index helps governments make policy, businesses make decisions, and banks make guidelines. This, in turn, trickles down to Main Street where it impacts every one of us -- and eventually influences real estate.

Since peaking in April 2007, the Home Price Index is off 13.44 percent.

Home Supplies Tick Higher, Creating An Opening For Today's Home Buyers

2010-05-25T06:33:00.000-07:00

Sales of existing homes rose in April, buoyed by an expiring home buyer tax credit and exceptionally low mortgage rates.

As compared to March, April's Existing Home Sales rose by 410,000 units nationwide -- the second straight month of large gains. An "existing home" is a home resold by a prior owner (i.e. not new construction).

It's a solid report for housing overall, with rising sales suggesting that the real estate market's recovery is ongoing. However, the data presented a mixed message.

According to the National Association of Realtors®, although the number of homes sold ticked higher in April, so did the supply of existing homes for sale, too.

Sellers are now listing homes faster than buyers can buy them.

After adding another 0.3 months of supply in April, resale home supply is nearly two full months larger than at November 2009's low-point. This put downward pressure on home prices.

Furthermore, because 49% of April's buyers were first-time buyers and the tax credit has since ended, we can expect that sellers will continue to outweigh buyers in the months ahead.

It presents an interesting opportunity for June's home buyers. Mortgage rates are still at their lowest levels of the year -- despite expert predictions to the contrary -- and homes remain affordable. Plus, in a lot of markets, home values have started to creep higher.

There's good values and good rates but neither should last long. For the next few weeks, real estate may be in its 2010 sweet spot.

If you were thinking of moving in September of this year or later, consider moving up your timeframe.

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : May 24, 2010

2010-05-24T08:28:00.000-07:00

Another week, same old story.

Mortgage markets improved again last week on worsening news out of Greece and the Eurozone. Then, as contagion mentality set in, U.S. mortgage bonds gained and mortgage rates fell.

It's the 4th straight week in which conforming mortgage rates improved and, against the expectations of experts everywhere, it's now late-May and mortgage rates are as low as they've been all year.

If you're a homeowner and haven't looked at refinancing lately, it may be a good time to call your loan officer to hear your options. Especially because low rates can't last forever.

The European market concerns are likely overblown and the U.S. economy continues to expand at a measured pace.

This week, housing and inflation data takes center stage.

Monday : Existing Home Sales data
Tuesday : Case-Shiller Index; Home Price Index
Wednesday : New Home Sales data
Thursday : GDP
Friday : Personal Consumption Expenditures

Each of these data points has the power to move mortgage rates -- especially because trading volume is expected to thin as the 3-day weekend nears. As volume drops on Wall Street, it will be harder to match buyers and sellers and, as a result, mortgage pricing will get (more) erratic.

Rates should be most stable at the start of the week. It may be the best time to lock a rate.

The Fed's April Minutes Push Mortgage Rates Even Lower

2010-05-20T06:14:00.000-07:00

After starting the day in the red, mortgage rates rebounded Wednesday afternoon after the Federal Reserve released its April 27-28, 2010 meeting minutes.

It's good news for home buyers and would-be refinancers.

Mortgage rates continue to troll along multi-year lows.

"Fed Minutes" are lengthy, detailed recaps of Federal Open Market Committee meetings, not unlike the minutes you'd see after a corporate conference, or condo association gathering. The Federal Reserve publishes Fed Minutes 3 weeks after each respective FOMC get-together.

The Fed meets 8 times annually.

Because of the minutes' content and density, it's of tremendous value to Wall Street and investors. Fed Minutes provide a glimpse into the conversations and debates that shape the country's monetary policy.

The broad scope of the published meeting minutes are in sharp contrast to the more well-known, post-meeting press release which reads more like a policy summary.

And the extra words matter.

Here's some of what the Fed discussed last month:

On Greece : A crisis in Greece could slow U.S. domestic growth
On housing : Despite government support, growth appears to have stalled
On its mortgage buyback program : There's little reason to sell mortgage bonds right now

When the markets saw the Fed Minutes, what had been a down day for bond markets turned positive. The less-than-sunny outlook for the near-term U.S. economy sparked bond sales, pushing prices higher.

Mortgage rates move opposite mortgage bond prices.

Wall Street is always in search of clues from inside the Fed about what's next for the economy and post-FOMC minutes usually give good fodder. April's meeting was no different.

For now, mortgage rates remain near all-time lows but once the Eurozone issues are settled, rates are likely to rise. If you haven't locked a mortgage rate, your window may be closing. Once the economy is turning around for certain, mortgage bonds will be among the first of the casualties.

Housing Starts Rise In April, Exerting Downward Pressure On Home Prices

2010-05-19T06:25:00.000-07:00

Single-family Housing Starts rose by 55,000 last month, suggesting ample housing stock from which can choose this summer.

The report is a slightly larger read than what economists had expected.

Furthermore, for the first time since June 2009, Housing Starts appears to have broken away from its half-million unit plateau. 593,000 new homes were started in April.

Ordinarily, both Wall Street and Main Street would celebrate a strong housing sector report like this, but the Department of Commerce's press release also held two cautionary notes.

The first point of caution is a mathematical one. Although single-family starts increased by 10.2 percent, the survey had a Margin of Error of 10.7 percent. This means that Housing Starts may have fallen by 0.5 percent and the report is statistically worthless.

The second point of caution is tied to Building Permits, a complementary data point in the same Department of Commerce report. In April, Building Permits fell by almost 11 percent with a tiny Margin of Error of less than 2%. This tells us that builders are pulling back -- a sign of low housing market confidence

According to the Census Bureau, 82% of homes start construction within 60 days of permit-issuance. Housing Starts, therefore, should ease though June and July.

Home prices are based on housing's supply and demand. For the next few months, supply should elevate, helping prices remain suppressed, after which, supply should dwindle.

The best time to buy a home, therefore, may be now. As the summer months come to close, we may find that buyers vastly outweigh sellers.

The Right Way To Take A Cash Gift For Downpayment

2010-05-18T06:21:00.000-07:00

As lenders tighten mortgage guidelines for home buyers, minimum downpayment requirements are increasing. Several years ago, you could finance a home with nothing down. Today, most conventional mortgages require at least 10 percent.

Anecdotally, guideline changes have led to an increase in the number of home buyers accepting cash gifts from family.

Gifts are allowed in most cases but the problem is, if you don't accept the gift in a "lender-friendly" way, the mortgage underwriter could reject it, and negate it.

You can't just deposit a cash gift into your bank account. You have to follow a series of steps and keep records.

Provide an acceptable gift letter signed by all parties
Provide documentation of the gifter's withdrawal of funds via teller receipts
Provide documentation of the giftee's deposit of funds via teller receipts

Lenders require these 3 steps for two basic reasons. First, they want to make sure that the cash gift is "clean" (i.e. not laundered). Second, they want to make sure the gift is really a gift and not a loan-in-disguise.

It's why lenders typically require that the loan application be accompanied by a signed, dated letter.

For example:

I am the [relationship to recipient] of [name of recipient] and this letter serves as evidence that I am gifting [name of recipient] [amount of gift] to be used for the purchase of the home at [complete address of property].

This is a gift -- not a loan -- and there is no expectation of repayment.

Signed, [Signature of gifter]

As an additional step, home buyers receiving cash gifts should make sure that gifted funds are not commingled at the time of deposit. If the cash gift is for $10,000, therefore, the bank's deposit slip should indicate that a $10,000 deposit was made -- nothing more, nothing less. Don't add a random $100 deposit to the transaction, in other words. The $100 deposit should be a separate transaction.

It's also worth noting that gifting funds between family members can create both legal and tax liabilities. If you're unsure about how donating or receiving a gift may impact you, call or email us directly.

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : May 17, 2010

2010-05-17T08:11:00.001-07:00

Mortgage markets improved last week -- but barely -- as ongoing doubt surrounding the health of Greece and the Euro pushed additional investors into safe assets, including mortgage bonds.

Mortgage rates were wildly volatile between Monday and Friday before closing the week slightly better than their best levels of the year.

It's the 3rd straight week in which mortgage rates improved but that doesn't necessarily mean the trend for lower rates will continue. The last two times mortgage rates teased these levels, they immediately spiked higher.

It happened once in February 2010, and again, 4 weeks later in March.

This week, the same could happen. After a week-and-a-half without much data of consequence, the newswires will be on overtime.

The first release to watch is Monday's National Association of Home Builder's Housing Market Index. It's not a "mainstream" release, per se, but the index gives some insight into how homebuilders are feeling about the economy and homebuilders are on the frontlines of the housing market. The stronger the report, the worse it should be for mortgage rates going forward.

The same goes for Tuesday's Housing Starts and Building Permits numbers.

Also on Tuesday, the government releases the Producer Price Index. The Producer Price Index is like a "cost of living" report for U.S. businesses -- it measures the change in operating cost from mont-to-month and from year-to-year.

PPI is viewed as a precursor to inflation and inflation is bad for mortgage rates. Therefore, if the Producer Price Index reads higher-than-expected, mortgage rates will rise. If PPI is in-line, rates should hold steady.

Then, on Wednesday, the Consumer Price Index is released. Again, if costs are rising, mortgage rates will likely follow.

The week closes with the release of the Federal Reserve's minutes from its last meeting in April and the jobs figures. All in all, a busy week of data and mortgage rates could change by a lot.

If you're still shopping for the market bottom, luck's been on your side but there's a point when it's best to just lock in. This week may be that point.

Talk to us about today's market and make yourself a game plan for locking a rate. Rates have never stayed this low, for this long, and this week doesn't figure to be much different.

Your Mortgage Approval Isn't Final Until It's Funded

2010-05-14T08:41:00.001-07:00

A mortgage approval is never final until it's funded.

A host of things can "go wrong" while your home loan is underway. Some are in your control, many more are not. And just being aware of some potential pitfalls could help save your loan down the road, and your peace of mind today.

MSN Money ran a summary piece on the topic titled "10 Things That Can Kill A Home Loan".

It's an excellent article because, unlike most "get approved" articles that advise against things like buying a car before closing, or opening a bunch of new credit cards, the MSN Money piece addresses more uncommon factors that can lead to a similar loan turndown.

For example, a home may be unfundable if it's unsuitable for human habitation -- a condition you may not discover until after a thorough home inspection's been made. Broken windows, lack of plumbing, and/or major foundation damage are all deal-breakers with a lender.

Either fix the home prior to closing, or don't close at all.

Homes in "declining markets" have danger spots, too. Especially for conforming mortgage applicants with less than 20% equity.

Because of how private mortgage insurers operate, some homes carry tougher, ZIP code-based PMI eligibility requirements. As a mortgage applicant, it's important to understand this because you may be PMI-eligible in one neighborhood, but not in another.

There's others ways in which a mortgage approval can go bad, too:

You're self-employed and your income was lower last year versus the year prior
Your tax return shows large amounts of unreimbursed employee expenses
You failed to return required paperwork to the lender within a reasonable time frame

Mortgage approvals are delicate and, despite an improving economy, lenders still operate with caution. Talk with your real estate agent and your loan officer and put together a game plan.

The best way to beat the mortgage system is to know the rules before you start to play.

Foreclosure Activity Slows For The First Time In Several Years

2010-05-13T06:26:00.001-07:00

The national foreclosure rate is finally falling.

According to foreclosure-tracking firm RealtyTrac.com, the number of foreclosure notices dropped 2 percent between April 2009 and April 2010.

2 percent may not seem like much, but it's the first time in the history of the RealtyTrac report that the annual foreclosure rate has dropped.

To be sure, foreclosure rates remain elevated -- more than 300,000 were reported last month, but default notices appear to be approaching a plateau.

The RealtyTrac report shows some other interesting statistics, too:

6 states accounted for more than half of April's bank repossessions nationwide
For the 40th month in a row, Nevada topped the nation's foreclosure rate
Foreclosure rates dropped in both California and Arizona, 2 foreclosure hot-spots through 2009

The good news for housing doesn't stop there. 9 of the top 10 leading metropolitan areas for foreclosure-related activity showed a drop in annual activity. Only Reno, Nevada showed an increase.

Buying distressed homes is big business, according to the National Association of Realtors®, accounting for 35 percent of all home resales with a typical discount ranging near 15 percent on value.

But with the discount comes some caution. You need to know how buying a foreclosed can be different from buying a non-foreclosed home.

For example, distressed properties are often sold as-is and may have defects that render them "un-lendable". Secondly, "quick closings" aren't usually possible with bank-owned homes -- you're often at the bank's schedule and mercy.

And, lastly, not all foreclosed homes are searchable online. You'll usually find more stock if you work with a real estate agent versus searching online.

The RealtyTrac foreclosure report is thorough and can help you gauge what's happening on a state-by-state level, and in the nation's largest metropolitan areas. Once you've done your research, talk to your real estate agent about what to do next.

There's still good deals in the foreclosure market — you just have to know where to find them.

Shopping For Mortgage Rates Is Part Research Skills, Part Luck

2010-05-11T06:38:00.000-07:00

Shopping multiple lenders for a "good mortgage rate" can sometimes save you 1/8 percent on your rate and/or a few hundred dollars in fees. However, when it comes to getting the best mortgage rate, you're going to more than good research skills.

You're going to need some luck.

Mortgage rates are unpredictable, ever-changing, and rarely change as expected.

For example, when the Federal Reserve left the mortgage market March 31, 2010, analysts said that mortgage rates would rise by a half-percent or more. It was practically stated as fact on TV. When April 1 came around, though, rates didn't rise.

Instead, a volcano erupted and mortgage rates dropped on safe haven buying.

Then, a week later, as the volcano ash cleared, mortgage rates were supposed to resume their rise. Only they didn't. Instead, a debt crisis emerged in the Eurozone and mortgage rates dropped.

Since March 31, conforming mortgage rates are lower by roughly 0.125 percent, according to Freddie Mac's weekly mortgage rate survey. At today's rates, the savings are roughly $20 per month per $200,000 borrowed -- or $100 per month based on their original, post-March 31 forecast.

It brings us to one of the most important axioms in rate shopping: You can't shop for good luck.

On some days, rates go higher
On some days, rates go lower
On some days, rates stay the same

Occasionally, there are days when rates do all three.

As a home buyer or would-be refinancer, what rate you get depends on at what time of day you do your shopping.

You can't predict what will happen next in mortgage markets -- even just an hour from now.

Therefore, the smartest move, sometimes, is just lock your rate now. At least that way, you've got a guarantee.

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : May 10, 2010

2010-05-10T06:30:00.000-07:00

Mortgage markets improved to their best levels of 2010 last week, aided by events half a world away and ongoing safe haven buying. Greece's debt problems continue to help mortgage rate shoppers around the country.

Conventional mortgage rates dropped last week, ARMs falling more than fixed. FHA mortgage rates also improved.

Global concern for the Greece Situation are so strong that markets even shrugged off April's blowout job report. On most other days, mortgage rates would soar on better-than-expected jobs data -- especially coming out of a recession.

The Department of Labor's April Non-Farm Payrolls reports:

Payrolls have been net positive for 4 straight months
Nearly 600,000 jobs have been created thus far in 2010
Monthly job growth posted its biggest gain in 4 years in April

Additionally, more than 800,000 Americans re-entered the workforce in April in search of work.

As a result, the Unemployment Rate jumped by 0.2 percent -- another positive sign (in a roundabout way).

But again, Wall Street wasn't watching jobs -- Wall Street was watching Greece. And Greece was in riot.

This week, without much new data due on the economy, mortgage markets should continue to take cues from Greece, the IMF and the Eurozone. If a bailout agreement can be reached that investors feel is effective, the safe haven buying that's led rates lower will recede and mortgage rates should rise.

Conversely, if an agreement is reached that investors deem ineffective, or no agreement is reached at all, mortgage rates should drop.

Each week for the last four weeks, we've talked about Greece and its pending bailout and how it might impact rates because each week the bailout appears imminent. Even this week, the market opens with the news that the IMF has approved a $40 billion lifeline to Greece. Maybe this will be the news that finally turns the mortgage market around.

Mortgage rates are unnaturally low right now and should change direction quickly. The problem is nobody knows when that will happen so be careful when rate shopping and keep an eye on the market.

Mortgage rates may fall further, but when they turn higher, they're going to turn quickly.

1 In 8 Banks Tightened Prime Mortgage Standards Last Quarter

2010-05-06T09:04:00.001-07:00

The Federal Reserve says that financial markets "remain supportive of economic growth". Residential mortgage guidelines, however, continue to tighten.

If you've applied for a home loan recently, you probably felt it; extra scrutiny on income, assets and credit scores, among other things. The hard proof of the changes, however, can be found in the Federal Reserve's quarterly survey of its member banks.

Every 3 months, the Federal Reserve asks senior bank loan officers around the country whether their respective banks' "prime" residential mortgage guidelines tightened since the last survey.For the period January-March 2010, 1 in 8 banks surveyed toughened their qualification standards.

Only 4% loosened them.

When we account for the Fed's survey in conjunction with new underwriting standards from Fannie Mae and FHA, it's clear that getting approved for a mortgage in 2010 is more difficult than at any time in recent memory.

Today's homeowners and home buyers have taller hurdles to leap:

Minimum FICO scores are higher
Downpayment/equity requirements are larger
Debt-to-Income thresholds are smaller

In other words, mortgage rates may stay low throughout 2010, but that won't matter to homeowners failing to meet the new, minimum eligibility standards as set forth by the lenders.

If you're among the many people wondering if now is the right time to buy or refinance a home, remember that -- along with a probable increase in mortgage rates -- mortgage approvals are getting more scarce.

The best home price or mortgage rate in the world won't matter if you're ineligible for financing.

March Pending Home Sales Point To Stronger Spring Market

2010-05-05T06:36:00.000-07:00

The Pending Home Sales Index moved higher in March as home sales were spurred by low mortgage rates and an expiring tax credit.

A "pending home" is a property that is under contract to sell, but not yet closed.

March marks the second straight month in which the Pending Home Sales Index improved after a series of weak showings this past winter.

March showed a 5 percent increase over the month, but the Pending Home Sales Index is still off its October 2009's peak.

October 2009 is a comparable period to March 2010 in that it marked the 1-month deadline before the home buyer tax credit's initial expiration date. The credit was later extended to April 2010, of course.

That said, March's surge in sales is being felt on the street.

Home buyers no doubt noticed the change in activity. Around the country, anecdotally, multiple offer situations were more common last month and "right-priced" homes tended to go under contract quickly.

The increase in March's Pending Home Sales is diminishing the nation's home supply which, in turn, should cause prices to rise in most markets.

Today's buyers should consider making an offer sooner rather than later. Looking at the data, it appears the best time to have found a "deal" on a home may have been in February.

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Fannie Mae Tightens Guidelines On ARMs And Interest Only Products

2010-05-04T08:22:00.000-07:00

For the first time this year, Fannie Mae announced significant updates to its mortgage underwriting guidelines.

The changes include newer, harsher ARM qualification standards, the elimination of a once-popular loan product, and tighter rules for interest only mortgages.

Fannie Mae made its official announcement April 30, 2010. The changes will roll out to home buyers and homeowners over the next 12 weeks.

The first guideline change is tied to ARMs of 5 years or less.

Mortgage applicants must now qualify based on a mortgage rate 2% higher than their note rate.

For example, if your mortgage rate is 5 percent, for qualification purposes, your rate would be 7 percent.

The elevated qualification payment will disqualify borrowers whose debt-to-income levels are borderline.

The second change is Fannie Mae's elimination of the standard 7-year balloon mortgage. Balloon mortgages were popular early last decade. Lately, few borrowers have chosen them, though.

Mostly because rates have been relative high as compared to a comparable 7-year ARM.

And, lastly, Fannie Mae is changing its interest only mortgages guidelines.

Effective June 19, 2010, Fannie Mae interest only mortgages must meet the following criteria:

The home must be a 1-unit property
The home must be a primary residence, or vacation home
The borrower's FICO must be 720 or higher

The mortgage must be a purchase, or rate-and-term refinance. No "cash out" allowed.

Furthermore, borrowers using interest only mortgages must show two full years of mortgage payments "in the bank" at the time of closing.

Earlier this year, Fannie Mae-sister Freddie Mac announced that as of September 2010, it will stop offering interest only loans altogether.

Between Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, the FHA, and other government-supported entities, the U.S. government now backs 96.5% of the U.S. mortgage market. So long as mortgage default rates are high, expect approvals for all borrower types to continue to toughen.

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : May 3, 2010

2010-05-03T06:29:00.001-07:00

Mortgage markets improved last week on tame inflation data, a benign statement from the Federal Reserve, and ongoing credit problems in Greece.

The factors combined to drop conforming mortgage rates to their lowest levels in 6 weeks.

It's an unexpected development considering that mortgage rates were supposed to rise post March 31, 2010. That was the day the Fed's support for mortgage markets ended.

Since then, however, a month-long string of devastating economic and meteorological events within the Eurozone sparked a global flight-to-quality that benefited "safe" assets such as mortgage bonds.

May 2010 may not be so kind.

The week starts with news that Greece reached a $147 billion bailout agreement with the IMF Sunday. This is a plus for the Eurozone and mortgage market negative. Rates should rise on the bailout.

Also on Monday, the government releases Personal Consumptions and Expenditures data.
PCE is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge and it's expected to show an annual read of 1.3 percent. Anything higher and rates should rise.

Then, for the rest of the week, employment data takes center stage.

Wednesday : ADP releases its private sector employment data
Thursday : The government releases initial jobless claims
Friday : The government releases April's job report

Jobs are key to the U.S. economic recovery, tied to consumer spending, consumer confidence, and mortgage delinquencies. If job growth is better than expected, mortgage rates should rise. If job growth is worse, rates should fall.

There's no "best day" to lock this week so keep an eye on the market. However, if rates rise as quickly in May as they fell in April, you won't have much time to act.

The Headlines Were Overly Rosy On February's Case-Shiller Index

2010-04-30T06:36:00.000-07:00

Earlier this week, Standard & Poors released its February Case-Shiller Index, a home price tracker for select metropolitan areas.

Overwhelmingly, home values fell in the 20 markets tracked by the Case-Shiller. Only San Diego showed a modest increase. The other 19 markets averaged a 1.23 percent decline between January and February.

However, that's not the story you read in the most papers. Instead, headlines read that home values were up in the United States, citing annualized data.

Unfortunately for active home buyers and sellers, year-over-year data isn't all that helpful when making a real estate decisions. It's the month-to-month data that matters. Month-to-month changes in home prices are what defines a housing market. Month-to-month is what sets the tone for contracts and negotiations on a purchase.

The rosier, annualized data published this past week just doesn't capture the reality of what was the February 2010 market. And even then, the data is somewhat useless because it's from February and May will be upon us next week.

Case-Shiller is on a 2-month lag -- hardly reflective of the "right now" of real estate.

When you're looking for real estate data that actionable, consider using sources that are more "real-time". A real estate agent may be the right place to start. Because for all the data that Case-Shiller and the other housing indices collect, it can never be as relevant to your individual needs as a well-executed, timely market analysis.

A Simple Explanation Of The Federal Reserve Statement (April 28, 2010 Edition)

2010-04-29T10:26:00.001-07:00

Yesterday, the Federal Open Market Committee voted 9-to-1 to leave the Fed Funds Rate unchanged within in its current target range of 0.000-0.250 percent.

In its press release, the FOMC noted that, since March, the U.S. economy "has continued to strengthen" and that the jobs markets "is beginning to improve". This is a step up from the last meeting after which the Fed said jobs were "stabilizing".

It also reiterated that business spending "has risen significantly".

Yesterday's statement marks the 7th straight press release in which the Fed shows optimism for the U.S. economy. Furthermore, the Fed has now closed all but one of the programs it created to support markets during last year's financial crisis.

Threats remain to growth, however. The Fed fingered a few:

Employers are reluctant to hire new workers
High unemployment threatens consumer spending
Consumer credit (still) remains tight

Also in its statement, the Fed re-acknowledged its plan to hold the Fed Funds Rate near zero percent "for an extended period". This was expected.

Overall, the statement's tone was positive and the Fed noted that inflation is within tolerance.

Mortgage market reaction has been muted thus far. Mortgage rates are unchanged post-FOMC.

The FOMC's next scheduled meeting is a 2-day affair, June 22-23, 2010. The 55-day span between meetings will be the FOMC's longest of 2010.

The Fed Adjourns From A 2-Day Meeting Today And What It Means For Mortgage Rates

2010-04-28T06:37:00.000-07:00

The Federal Reserve adjourns from a scheduled, 2-day meeting today. It's one of 8 scheduled Fed meetings for 2010.

Upon adjournment, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke & Co. will release a formal statement to the market. In it, the Fed is expected to announce "no change" in the Fed Funds Rate.
The Fed Funds Rate is currently in a target range of 0.000-0.250 percent.

The Fed Funds Rate is an inter-bank lending rate. It's also the basis for Prime Rate, a consumer interest rate on which credit card payments are based, among other consumer loans. Prime Rate is equal to the Fed Funds Rate + 3 percent. Credit card rates, therefore, will likely stay flat today, too.

Mortgage rates, however, should change. Possibly by a lot. The 30-year fixed mortgage does not correlate with the Fed Funds Rate (as shown in the chart at right).

The reason mortgage rates will change today is because, in its statement, the Federal Reserve will highlight vrious parts of the economy, identifying strengths, weaknesses and probable threats to growth.

These observations influence investors with a stake in bond markets and future returns and, with Wall Street on edge right now -- unsure of whether recent economic growth is a longer-term trend or a short-lived blip -- mortgage rates could shoot higher or they could drop, depending on how traders interpret the Fed.

It's a difficult time to be shopping mortgages.

Further complicating matters is Greece's recent debt downgrade to junk status. A small contagion fear is budding worldwide and, as a result, the flight-to-quality has picked up steam.

Mortgage rates are down because of it but could reverse higher at any moment.

Therefore, if you're actively shopping for a mortgage today, it may be prudent to lock your rate ahead of the Fed's announcement and any major market reversal. Mortgage rates may fall today, but there's very little room for them to fall. This is, however, a lot of room for them to rise.

The Fed adjourns at 2:15 PM ET. Call your loan officer to lock your rate.

New Homes Sales Were Strong in March, But Not As Strong As The News Would Have You Believe

2010-04-27T08:55:00.000-07:00

The sales of newly-built homes soared in March. Even more than what was expected. But the news may not be as glowing as what the media is telling us.

Take a look at the headlines from last Friday:

Sales of new homes rocketed up 27 percent in March (WaPo)
New-home sales rise fastest in 47 years (CNNMoney)
Sales of New Homes Climb by Most Since 1963 (Business Week)

None of these statements is false, per se, but each is somewhat misleading. The biggest reason why March's New Home Sales was even able to rise 27 percent is because data from the month before it -- February -- was the worst in New Home Sales history.

In February, new homes sold posted its lowest level in recorded history.

A better comparison would be against March a year earlier; or October 2009, the month before the home buyer tax credit's initial expiration date.

Against both of those time periods, March 2010 fared well.

Home buyers - first-timers and repeats alike -- went under contract last month, taking advantage of the soon-to-expire federal home buyer tax credit program. The credit gives up to $8,000 for first-time buyers and up to $6,500 for repeat ones.

Buyers must be in mutual contract on or before April 30, 2010 to be eligible for the credit, and must closed on or before June 30, 2010.

The New Home Sales data included other strong housing data, too. The current supply of new homes nationwide is at a multi-year low. Along with stronger home demand, this should push home prices higher throughout the coming months.

It's no wonder builders are bullish on the economy.